Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Celtic to win against Heart Of Midlothian with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the Premiership, Celtic has secured 18 points from 7 matches, boasting 6 wins and only 1 loss. Their goal difference of +10 highlights a strong attack and solid defence, having scored 14 goals while conceding just 4. Despite a recent dip in form with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, their overall season performance remains impressive. Heart Of Midlothian, positioned third in the league, has accumulated 13 points from 7 games with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They share the same goal tally as Celtic, scoring 14 goals, but their defensive record shows a weakness, conceding 8 goals for a goal difference of +6. Their form is notably better recently, with three wins from their last five matches, which could provide them with the momentum needed to challenge Celtic. According to the model, Celtic has a 64.2% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 20.9% and Heart Of Midlothian at 14.9%. There is also a 62.2% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. A potential caveat for Celtic could be their recent inconsistency, which may allow Heart Of Midlothian to exploit any weaknesses. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Celtic have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Celtic win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Celtic clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Celtic are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.30 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.25 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.45 | 4.50 | 6.32 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Celtic leads 5-4)In the last ten matches between Celtic and Heart Of Midlothian, Celtic has won 5 times, Heart Of Midlothian has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including two draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive wins. Notably, Heart Of Midlothian's recent victories include a 2-0 win and a 3-1 win, suggesting they can challenge Celtic effectively. However, Celtic has also recorded significant victories, including a 4-1 win, highlighting their capacity to dominate at times. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced contest.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCeltic have won 14 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Rangers 0-1 and lost to Ferencvarosi TC 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 8L from the last 35 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 7 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 and lost to Falkirk 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 10L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCeltic
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Celtic have averaged 7.2 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 6.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celtic have generated 2.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celtic player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
