CF Montreal vs DC United Prediction, Tips & Odds
CF Montreal vs DC United
Match Preview
The model favours a CF Montreal victory with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Despite their current position in 13th place, CF Montreal has shown signs of improvement recently, securing two wins in their last five matches. Their goal-scoring has been modest with 22 goals this season, but the team’s overall form indicates a potential turnaround as they seek to climb the standings. On the other hand, DC United sits in 9th place, with a record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses. They have accumulated 22 points and have a slightly better goal difference than Montreal at -3. However, their recent form has been less than stellar, managing just one win in their last five matches. This inconsistency could impact their ability to secure points away from home. According to the model, CF Montreal has a 42% chance of winning, with the likelihood of a draw at 26.1% and DC United at 31.9%. A key market to note is the probability of over 2.5 goals at 55.8%, suggesting a potentially open game. One caveat for Montreal is their defensive vulnerability, having conceded 33 goals this season, which could allow DC United to capitalize if they find their rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
CF Montreal have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. CF Montreal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CF Montreal vs DC United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.92 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.19 | 3.48 | 3.04 | 1.71 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.24 | 3.55 | 3.10 | 1.74 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.28 | 2.94 | 1.71 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.14 | 3.55 | 3.10 | 1.65 | 2.18 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.55 | 3.05 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between CF Montreal and DC United, both teams have won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in draws. This record highlights a competitive rivalry, as the results are evenly split. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight encounters, with five matches ending in draws or one-goal margins, but also include a notable high-scoring game with a 4-4 draw. The most recent win for either side was in 2023, suggesting that neither team has maintained a dominant streak in recent fixtures.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 9 | DC United | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 23 | DWDDD |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCF Montreal have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with New England Revolution 2-2 and lost to Inter Miami 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 14L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
DC United have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Houston Dynamo 1-1 and drew with Nashville SC 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 12D 8L from the last 25 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCF Montreal
No reported absences
DC United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
CF Montreal have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; DC United 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
CF Montreal have generated 1.67 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. CF Montreal player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
