Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. New England currently sits third in the league standings with 29 points from 16 matches, showcasing a solid season thus far. With nine wins and a goal difference of plus seven, they have demonstrated their ability to score while maintaining a relatively strong defense, conceding only 19 goals. In contrast, Toronto FC is struggling in 12th place with just 17 points from 18 matches. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, reflected in their three wins and eight draws. With a goal difference of minus eight, they have allowed 32 goals, which indicates defensive vulnerabilities that New England could exploit. According to the model, New England has a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Toronto's ability to capitalize on home advantage, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Toronto FC have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Toronto FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.65 | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.99 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 1.63 | 2.23 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.06 | 3.84 | 3.47 | 1.67 | 2.30 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.02 | 3.55 | 3.35 | 1.66 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New England Revolution leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Toronto FC and New England Revolution, the record stands at 3 wins for Toronto, 3 draws, and 4 wins for New England. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins; notably, five of the matches were decided by a single goal. The most recent encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, showing that both teams are capable of tight contests. New England has won two of the last three fixtures, suggesting a slight edge, while Toronto's last victory came over a year ago.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 43 | LWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 17 | 30 | 53 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 40 | DDLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 43 | DWLDL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 37 | DDDLL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 38 | DDDWW |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 37 | LWDWL |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 26 | DDWDW |
| 14 |  Austin | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 15 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 21 | LLDWD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FC have won 7 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Chicago Fire 4-4 and drew with New York City FC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 12D 10L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat New England Revolution 1-3 and beat DC United 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 10L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersToronto FC7
New England Revolution5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Dickerson has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Toronto FC have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; New England Revolution 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toronto FC have generated 0.84 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toronto FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
