CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours CF Montreal to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 11th place, Montreal has shown some resilience recently, with two wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last five matches. Their goal-scoring has been relatively steady, with a total of 22 goals this season, though they have also conceded 31, leaving them with a goal difference of -9. Toronto FC, on the other hand, is positioned 13th and struggling for form, having not won in their last five matches, with four losses and only one draw. They share the same total goals scored as Montreal but have a slightly better goal difference at -7. This lack of form is concerning, particularly as they have been unable to convert opportunities into points. According to the model, CF Montreal has a 50.2% chance of winning, with a 24.8% probability of a draw and a 25.0% chance for Toronto FC to take all three points. There is a notable likelihood of over 2.5 goals scored in the match, as well as both teams to score. However, one caveat is that if Toronto can find their rhythm and capitalize on Montreal's defensive vulnerabilities, they could upset the expected outcome. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
CF Montreal have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. CF Montreal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.80 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.33 | 3.54 | 2.78 | 1.65 | 2.19 | 1.52 | 2.33 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.88 | 1.67 | 2.30 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.28 | 3.05 | 1.58 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.28 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.52 | 2.35 | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.80 | 2.90 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 2.35 | 3.55 | 2.92 | 1.61 | 2.35 | 1.51 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CF Montreal leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between CF Montreal and Toronto FC, CF Montreal has won 5 times, Toronto FC has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with some matches being high-scoring and others more tightly contested. Notably, CF Montreal has achieved several narrow victories, while Toronto FC has recorded a couple of heavy wins, including a 6-1 result. The most recent draw occurred in August 2025, suggesting that both teams have had their moments, but CF Montreal holds a slight edge in this rivalry.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 17 | DLDDL |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 17 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCF Montreal have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with New England Revolution 2-2 and lost to Inter Miami 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 14L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 1 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 1-1 and lost to DC United 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 10L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCF Montreal4-3-3Confirmed
Toronto FC5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersCF Montreal3
Toronto FC6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
CF Montreal have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
CF Montreal have generated 1.67 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. CF Montreal player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
