St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Tips & Odds
St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City
Match Preview
The model favours St. Louis City to win against Sporting Kansas City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. St. Louis City currently sits in 12th place in the standings with 16 points from 14 matches. Their recent form is promising, having secured three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This resurgence has seen them score 16 goals while conceding 20 throughout the season, indicating a potential for improvement in both attack and defense. On the other hand, Sporting Kansas City finds itself in 15th place with only 11 points from 14 matches. Their season has been challenging, with a record of three wins, two draws, and nine losses. Despite a mixed bag of results in their last five matches, including two wins, they have struggled significantly with goal difference, having conceded 36 goals while scoring just 14. This disparity highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, which could be exploited by St. Louis City. According to the model output, St. Louis City has a win probability of around 55%, while Sporting Kansas City's chances are estimated at 25%. One key market percentage to watch is the over/under on total goals, which may reflect the teams' scoring and conceding patterns. However, a potential caveat is that if Sporting Kansas City can tighten their defense and capitalize on any mistakes, they could pose a greater threat than expected. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
St. Louis City have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 St. Louis City win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature St. Louis City clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. St. Louis City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.43 | 4.85 | 6.20 | 1.40 | 2.90 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.41 | 4.95 | 6.20 | 1.35 | 2.76 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.42 | 5.26 | 6.86 | 1.41 | 3.02 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 4.49 | 5.42 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.50 | 1.37 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 5.20 | 6.50 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Superbet | 1.45 | 5.10 | 6.00 | 1.41 | 2.95 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sporting Kansas City leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between St. Louis City and Sporting Kansas City, Sporting Kansas City has won 4 times, St. Louis City has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, both teams have experienced heavy wins, such as Sporting Kansas City's 4-1 victory and St. Louis City's 3-1 win. The most recent match ended in a 2-2 draw, highlighting the closely contested nature of their encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 | DWWWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 17 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Louis City have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Real Salt Lake 1-1 and beat Colorado Rapids 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 8L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Los Angeles FC 4-0 and lost to St. Louis City 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 16L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersSt. Louis City3
Sporting Kansas City3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
St. Louis City have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Sporting Kansas City 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
St. Louis City have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Louis City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
