Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charleroi vs OH Leuven
Match Preview
The model favours OH Leuven to win against Charleroi, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As the season begins, OH Leuven finds itself in a strong position, having finished the previous season with a solid form of two wins, two draws, and a single loss in their last five matches. This consistency suggests they can carry momentum into the new season, playing with confidence. On the other hand, Charleroi ended their last campaign with a mixed bag of results, achieving two wins, two draws, and one loss over the same stretch. Although they are starting the season fresh, their recent form may not provide the same level of confidence as their opponents. Their ability to convert chances into goals will be crucial if they aim to match OH Leuven's expected performance. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for OH Leuven, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat for this prediction lies in the uncertainty of how both teams will adapt to the new season, especially considering they have yet to play any matches this term. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as assessed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Charleroi have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Charleroi win as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Charleroi clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Charleroi are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charleroi vs OH Leuven| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.90 | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.79 | 3.66 | 4.80 | 1.98 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 1.79 | 3.35 | 4.01 | 1.94 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.77 | 3.78 | 4.61 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 1.75 | 3.55 | 4.60 | 2.02 | 1.76 | 1.89 | 1.79 | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 3.65 | 4.50 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.40 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (OH Leuven leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven stands at 2 wins for Charleroi, 4 draws, and 4 wins for OH Leuven over the last 10 matches. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with both teams having equal opportunities to claim points. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, as evidenced by four matches ending in draws and several low-scoring encounters, including three goalless draws. Notably, Charleroi has not won against OH Leuven in their last five meetings, suggesting a recent advantage for the visitors.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Antwerp | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Zulte Waregem | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 5 | Charleroi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 16 |  KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharleroi have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat OH Leuven 3-1 and lost to Rayo Vallecano 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 12L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
OH Leuven have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Charleroi 3-1 and drew with Heerenveen 4-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 15L from the last 31 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCharleroi4-2-3-1Confirmed
OH Leuven4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCharleroi
No reported absences
OH Leuven
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Allaerts has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Allaerts to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Charleroi have averaged 2.0 corners per match at home; OH Leuven 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charleroi have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charleroi player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
