St. Truiden vs Lommel United Prediction, Tips & Odds
St. Truiden vs Lommel United
Match Preview
The model favours St. Truiden to win against Lommel United with a projected scoreline of 2-1. St. Truiden enters the new season with a strong momentum, having won their last five matches in succession. This undefeated run provides a solid foundation as they look to translate their recent form into the regular season. While both teams start the season with no points, St. Truiden's recent success indicates a level of confidence and ability that could benefit them in this matchup. In contrast, Lommel United has shown mixed form leading into the season, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may pose challenges as they aim to establish themselves in the top tier of the league. Their recent results suggest that they may struggle to maintain momentum against a confident opponent like St. Truiden. The model output suggests a win probability favouring St. Truiden, underlining their recent form and home advantage. However, a caveat exists: if Lommel United can harness their potential and improve upon their recent performances, they could present an unexpected challenge. For a comprehensive understanding of our prediction, including the methodology based on expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model to deliver these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
St. Truiden have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 St. Truiden win as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature St. Truiden clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. St. Truiden are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
St. Truiden vs Lommel United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.62 | 3.85 | 5.10 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.77 | 1.91 | |
| 1.57 | 4.05 | 5.30 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.80 | 1.88 | |
| 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.41 | 1.81 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 3.58 | 4.75 | 1.88 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.25 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.61 | 4.14 | 5.42 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.60 | 3.85 | 5.30 | 1.82 | 1.93 | 1.80 | 1.88 | |
| 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 5.30 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.93 |
Superbet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.30 | 1.83 | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.76 | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Lommel United shows 0 wins for St. Truiden, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Lommel United. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a balanced matchup with neither team able to secure a victory. This single fixture suggests a competitive nature, though limited data prevents any strong conclusions about overall dominance. The absence of clear winning patterns or heavy scorelines reflects a tight contest in their historical meetings.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Antwerp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  OH Leuven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Lommel United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Anderlecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Cercle Brugge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Charleroi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  Union St. Gilloise | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  SK Beveren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  RAAL La Louvière | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Truiden have won 7 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat St. Truiden 3-0 and drew with St. Truiden 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 3D 8L from the last 28 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lommel United have won 4 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to OH Leuven 5-1 and drew with Cercle Brugge 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 6L from the last 21 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSt. Truiden
No reported absences
Lommel United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Letellier has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Letellier to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
St. Truiden average 1.8 goals per match at home; Lommel United 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
St. Truiden have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 2.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Truiden player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
