Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire to win against Charlotte, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chicago Fire currently sits in third place in the standings, having secured 26 points from 14 matches with a strong goal difference of +11. Their season has been marked by a solid attack, scoring 27 goals, and a robust defence, conceding only 16. Despite a recent dip in form with three wins and two losses in their last five matches, their overall performance this season positions them as a strong contender. Charlotte, on the other hand, occupies the sixth spot with 21 points from 15 games, reflecting a more inconsistent season. They have recorded six wins but have also faced six defeats, indicating challenges in both scoring and defending. With a goal difference of just +1, their defensive vulnerabilities have been evident, allowing 23 goals while scoring 24. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses, highlighting their struggle to maintain consistency. The model output suggests a win probability of around 55% for Chicago Fire, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is that Chicago Fire is likely to be favoured in the betting lines. However, a potential caveat for Chicago is their recent form, which could indicate vulnerability if they fail to regain their winning momentum. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Chicago Fire have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Chicago Fire win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Chicago Fire clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Chicago Fire are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.51 | 4.40 | 5.50 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.30 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.52 | 4.86 | 5.24 | 1.43 | 2.83 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 4.13 | 4.79 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.55 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.52 | 4.60 | 5.40 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.54 | 2.33 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Superbet | 1.56 | 4.60 | 5.15 | 1.46 | 2.75 | 1.54 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Charlotte leads 5-3)In the last eight matches between Chicago Fire and Charlotte, Charlotte leads with five wins, while Chicago Fire has three victories, and there have been no draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches featuring narrow margins, such as three games decided by just one goal. However, there have also been instances of heavier defeats, like Charlotte's 4-3 win in 2024 and Chicago's 4-1 win earlier that same year. Chicago Fire has not won against Charlotte in their last three encounters, highlighting Charlotte's recent dominance in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 33 | DLWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 39 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 33 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 33 | DLWLL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 29 | WDLWL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 6 | Charlotte | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Union | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 12 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChicago Fire have won 6 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Toronto FC 2-1 and lost to New York Red Bulls 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 7L from the last 24 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Charlotte have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New England Revolution 1-0 and lost to Nashville SC 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 9L from the last 23 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersChicago Fire3
Charlotte3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Freemon has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Freemon to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Chicago Fire have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Charlotte 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chicago Fire have generated 2.09 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chicago Fire player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
