Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours Columbus Crew to win against Toronto FC with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Columbus currently sits in 13th place in the league, having played 28 matches with 8 wins, 5 draws, and 15 losses. Despite their position, they have shown some improvement in form recently, securing three wins in their last five matches. Their goal difference of -5 indicates they have been competitive, scoring 41 goals while conceding 46. On the other hand, Toronto FC is positioned just above Columbus in 11th place, with a record of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses. They have collected 32 points, slightly ahead of Columbus but have struggled with consistency, claiming only two victories in their last five matches. Their goal difference of -11 highlights defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 52 goals while managing to score the same number as Columbus. The model gives Columbus Crew a win probability of approximately 45%, while Toronto FC's chance of winning is around 30%. The key market percentage suggests a draw probability of 25%. A potential pitfall for Columbus could be their tendency to concede goals, which could allow Toronto to capitalise if they find their attacking rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 65.4% probability.
Columbus Crew have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 5-5 draw as the most likely scoreline at 65.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Columbus Crew are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.56 | 4.45 | 4.80 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.57 | 4.57 | 4.99 | 1.45 | 2.74 | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 3.95 | 4.46 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.90 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.80 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Columbus Crew leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Columbus Crew and Toronto FC, Columbus Crew has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Toronto FC has won once. The scorelines show that Columbus Crew has secured several convincing victories, including a 4-0 win and a 2-0 win, indicating a tendency for dominant performances. Toronto FC's sole victory came in 2026, suggesting a long stretch of difficulty against Columbus Crew, who have not lost to Toronto FC in their last nine encounters. The frequent draws and low-scoring matches highlight a competitive edge for Columbus Crew in this rivalry.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 36 | WDWLL |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonColumbus Crew have won 14 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Columbus Crew 3-1 and beat Columbus Crew 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 19L from the last 46 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Toronto FC 0-2 and lost to Nashville SC 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 13L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersColumbus Crew3
Toronto FC3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Columbus Crew have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Columbus Crew have generated 1.91 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Columbus Crew player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
