Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Prediction, Tips & Odds
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Match Preview
The model favours Philadelphia Union to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. The Union currently sit in 6th place in the standings with 42 points, having secured 12 wins from their 28 matches. Their recent form has been impressive, boasting five consecutive victories, which suggests they are hitting their stride at a crucial time in the season. With 56 goals scored, they have the offensive capabilities to challenge any defence. In contrast, New England Revolution holds 4th place with 46 points and a record of 14 wins. However, they have been inconsistent lately, winning only three of their last five matches, with two losses in that span. Their goal tally stands at 45 with a slightly better defensive record than the Union, but their recent form does not inspire confidence heading into this match. The model provides Philadelphia Union with a win probability of approximately 55%, while New England's chances sit at 30%. A notable market percentage indicates that Union are favoured to win at around 45%. However, the Union's recent success could be put to the test if they struggle to convert chances against a team like New England, who can be dangerous on the counter. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, using expected goals and actual results to inform our analysis.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Philadelphia Union win as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Philadelphia Union clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.51 | 4.60 | 5.10 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.52 | 4.70 | 5.34 | 1.41 | 2.89 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.30 | 1.44 | 2.87 | 1.50 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.45 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Philadelphia Union leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution, Philadelphia Union has won 7 times, with 1 draw and New England Revolution winning once. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Philadelphia, highlighted by several heavy victories, including a 5-1 win and a 3-0 win. The only draw occurred in a friendly, while New England's sole victory came in 2023, suggesting that their success in this matchup has been limited. Overall, the record demonstrates a clear dominance by Philadelphia Union over recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 46 | DWWWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPhiladelphia Union have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Charlotte 2-2 and beat Real Salt Lake 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 15L from the last 40 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
New England Revolution have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Cincinnati 2-3 and lost to Real Salt Lake 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 14L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersPhiladelphia Union1
New England Revolution5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Philadelphia Union have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; New England Revolution 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
