Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Match Preview
The model favours Orlando City SC to win against New York City FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Orlando currently sits in 7th place in the standings, having accumulated 37 points from 28 matches with a goal difference of -15. Despite a mixed recent form, they have managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, suggesting they can capitalize on their home advantage. On the other hand, New York City FC is positioned 10th, with 33 points from the same number of matches. Their goal difference of +4 indicates they have been more defensively solid compared to their offensive output. However, their recent form shows just one win in the last five matches, reflecting challenges in both scoring and maintaining consistency. The model gives Orlando City a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Orlando City scoring over 1.5 goals, which is a strong possibility given their goal-scoring record this season. A caveat to this prediction is the potential for New York City to disrupt the match with their defensive play, which could lead to a tighter contest than expected. For a detailed explanation of the methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Orlando City SC have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Orlando City SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Orlando City SC vs New York City FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.84 | 2.63 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.38 | 2.76 | |
| 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 2.28 | 3.97 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.85 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.46 | 2.59 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.85 | 2.82 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.39 | 2.85 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 6-1)In the last ten matches between Orlando City SC and New York City FC, New York City FC has won six times, Orlando City SC has won once, and there have been two draws. The scorelines indicate a distinctly favorable record for New York City FC, with several heavy defeats for Orlando City SC, including a 5-0 loss in March 2026. The matches have generally been competitive, but New York City FC has consistently found ways to secure victories, particularly in the more recent fixtures. Orlando City SC's last win in this matchup was back in August 2022.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 41 | WDWLL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 34 | DLLDL |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOrlando City SC have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 3-2 and beat Orlando City SC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 19L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New York City FC have won 7 of their last 24 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New York City FC 2-0 and lost to Chicago Fire 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 17L from the last 41 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersOrlando City SC6
New York City FC5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Orlando City SC have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; New York City FC 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Orlando City SC have generated 1.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Orlando City SC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
