Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Corinthians to win against Chapecoense with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Corinthians currently sits in 9th place in the Serie A standings, having played 23 matches this season. Their form has been solid, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. With 25 goals scored and only 22 conceded, they hold a positive goal difference of 3, indicating a balanced attack and defence. In contrast, Chapecoense is struggling at the bottom of the table in 20th place, having played 22 matches. Their season has been challenging, marked by just one win, eight draws, and thirteen losses. They have conceded 46 goals while scoring only 23, resulting in a goal difference of -23. This significant disparity in both form and standings creates a difficult scenario for Chapecoense as they face a mid-table opponent. The model gives Corinthians a strong win probability, reflecting their better overall performance this season. However, one caveat to consider is that if Chapecoense can secure an early goal or capitalise on defensive errors, the match dynamics could change. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, the full method is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is powered by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 46% of matches. Chapecoense-sc average 1.0 goals per game.
Corinthians manage games at home, conceding just 0.78 goals per match. Chapecoense-sc score 1.02 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Corinthians have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Corinthians win as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Corinthians clean sheets, in line with their 46% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Corinthians are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.42 | 4.40 | 7.10 | 1.84 | 1.93 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 1.46 | 4.49 | 7.88 | 1.88 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.45 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.46 | 4.53 | 7.30 | 1.88 | 1.96 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.50 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Corinthians leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Corinthians and Chapecoense-SC, Corinthians has won 6 times, drawn 2, and lost 2. The scorelines suggest a tendency for narrow victories, with Corinthians winning five of their matches by a single goal, while Chapecoense-SC's victories include a 2-1 win and a 1-0 win. The presence of two scoreless draws indicates that some encounters have been tightly contested. Chapecoense-SC last won in August 2018, which highlights a period of dominance for Corinthians in this matchup. Overall, the head-to-head record is favorable to Corinthians but does not show overwhelming lopsidedness.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 11 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 32 | LLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCorinthians have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Santos 0-1 and beat Rosario Central 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 13D 11L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Chapecoense-sc 3-1 and lost to Cruzeiro 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 19L from the last 42 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCorinthians4-2-3-1Confirmed
Chapecoense-sc4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
17 playersCorinthians9
Chapecoense-sc8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
W. do Nascimento has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by W. do Nascimento to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Corinthians have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Corinthians have generated 0.81 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Corinthians player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
