Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
Match Preview
The model favours CSKA Sofia to win against Derry City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. CSKA Sofia has shown strong form recently, winning four of their last five matches, which indicates a solid level of performance as they approach this qualifying round. Their ability to secure victories consistently, even with one loss, reflects a team that is capable of maintaining pressure on their opponents. On the other hand, Derry City has struggled in their last five matches, managing only one win and two draws, alongside three losses. This inconsistent form could hinder their confidence heading into this crucial fixture. Without recent momentum, Derry City may find it challenging to compete against a more in-form CSKA Sofia side. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% in favour of CSKA Sofia. However, an honest caveat is that if Derry City can leverage home advantage effectively and exploit any defensive lapses from CSKA Sofia, they could potentially pull off an upset. For a comprehensive understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates matches based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
CSKA Sofia have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. CSKA Sofia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.30 | 3.85 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 3.78 | 3.78 | 1.85 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.66 | 3.78 | 1.85 | 1.69 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 3.62 | 3.15 | 1.74 | 1.83 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.78 | 3.80 | 1.86 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
Superbet | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.76 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.83 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (CSKA Sofia leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record, CSKA Sofia leads with 1 win and Derry City has 0 wins or draws. The only match played between these two teams resulted in a close score of 3-2 in favor of CSKA Sofia. This indicates a competitive encounter, but CSKA Sofia's victory suggests they have the edge historically. Derry City has not yet secured a win against CSKA Sofia, which could impact their confidence in future matchups.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonDerry City have won 2 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Derry City 2-4 and beat Derry City 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 4D 5L from the last 11 games (18% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
CSKA Sofia have won 3 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Odra Opole 2-3 and beat Brinje-Grosuplje 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 3L from the last 10 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDerry City
No reported absences
CSKA Sofia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Sabotic has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Sabotic to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Derry City average 1.4 goals per match at home; CSKA Sofia 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
CSKA Sofia have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 50% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. CSKA Sofia player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
