Dundee Utd vs Dundee Prediction, Tips & Odds
Dundee Utd vs Dundee
Match Preview
The model favours Dundee Utd to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 7th place, Dundee Utd has started the season with one point from a draw, demonstrating a balanced goal record with one goal scored and one conceded. Their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, indicating potential for improvement and resilience. Dundee, positioned 3rd, has earned three points from two matches with a win and a loss. They have scored two goals while conceding one, reflecting a solid start to their campaign. However, their form has been inconsistent, with only two wins out of their last five games, which may hinder their momentum going into this derby. The model assigns a 46.9% probability of a Dundee Utd victory, alongside a 26.5% chance of a draw and a 26.6% likelihood for a Dundee win. Additionally, there is a 52.6% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55.8% chance for both teams to score. One caveat to consider is that if Dundee Utd fails to convert their chances or if Dundee's attack finds its rhythm, the outcome could swing in favour of the visitors. The full methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Dundee Utd have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Dundee Utd clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Dundee Utd are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Dundee Utd vs Dundee| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 1.92 | 3.52 | 3.74 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.80 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 1.93 | 3.57 | 3.91 | 1.86 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 1.99 | 3.04 | 3.15 | 1.94 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.94 | 3.52 | 3.73 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 1.96 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.79 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between Dundee Utd and Dundee, both teams have won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a balanced rivalry, though there have been a mix of narrow and more significant victories. Dundee Utd recorded a notable 3-0 win, while Dundee's highest scoring match was a 4-2 win against Dundee Utd. The frequency of draws suggests closely contested encounters, and neither team has dominated this fixture recently. The last time either team won consecutively was not within this sample, highlighting the competitive nature of their meetings.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | WL |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDundee Utd have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Celtic 0-4 and drew with Rangers 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 11L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Dundee have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Dundee 3-0 and lost to Celtic 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 13L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDundee Utd
No reported absences
Dundee
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Dundee Utd have averaged 2.8 corners per match at home; Dundee 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Dundee Utd have generated 0.94 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Dundee Utd player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
