Estrela vs Famalicao Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estrela vs Famalicao
Match Preview
The model favours Estrela with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Famalicao. Estrela is currently positioned 11th in the Primeira Liga, having played two matches, where they have yet to register a win but have managed two draws. Their goal difference stands at zero, having scored four and conceded four. The team's recent form shows resilience, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating their ability to compete effectively. On the other hand, Famalicao finds themselves in 14th place after three matches, with one point from a draw and two losses. They have struggled offensively, netting only two goals while allowing four, resulting in a goal difference of -2. Their form is concerning, with no wins and three losses in their last five matches. This lack of success may weigh heavily on their confidence as they approach this fixture. The model outputs a win probability of 55% for Estrela, a draw at 25%, and a 20% chance for a Famalicao victory. While Estrela's solid form suggests they should come out on top, a lack of winning experience could pose challenges. The full methodology of this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this data-driven approach to provide insights into upcoming matches.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 24% of matches. Famalicao average 1.2 goals per game.
Estrela manage games at home, conceding just 1.55 goals per match. Famalicao score 1.16 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.6% probability.
Estrela have been the stronger side, winning 24% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Estrela are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estrela vs Famalicao| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.34 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.88 | 3.06 | 2.51 | 2.19 | 1.65 | 1.84 | 1.84 | |
| 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.97 | 3.11 | 2.67 | 2.27 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.78 | 2.93 | 2.23 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 3.00 | 3.18 | 2.61 | 2.26 | 1.70 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
| 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.30 | 2.18 | 1.58 | 1.88 | 1.79 | |
Betano | 2.95 | 3.15 | 2.55 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
Superbet | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.68 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 2.10 | 1.63 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Estrela leads 2-1)The head-to-head record between Estrela and Famalicao shows Estrela winning 2 matches, Famalicao winning 1, and 2 matches ending in draws over the last 5 encounters. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with the matches often being tightly contested; three of the five games ended in draws or one-goal margins. Notably, Famalicao's last victory in this matchup was in August 2024, where they won 3-0, while Estrela has since won twice and drawn twice, suggesting a slight upper hand in recent meetings.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | DWDD |
| 14 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstrela have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Famalicao 2-2 and beat Al-Nassr 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 11D 11L from the last 29 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Famalicao have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Famalicao 2-2 and lost to Santa Clara 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 7L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedEstrela4-2-3-1Confirmed
Famalicao4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstrela
No reported absences
Famalicao
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Ferreira has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by V. Ferreira to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estrela have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Famalicao 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estrela have generated 0.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 24% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estrela player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
