Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction, Tips & Odds
Maritimo vs Benfica
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against Maritimo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Benfica currently sits in sixth place in the Primeira Liga standings, having played only two matches this season. With a record of one win and one draw, they have scored nine goals while conceding just two, showcasing their offensive capabilities and solid defensive performance. Their goal difference of seven indicates a strong start, particularly with their attacking prowess. Maritimo, on the other hand, is performing well, sitting in fourth place with seven points from three matches. Their record of two wins and one draw has seen them score five goals and concede three, resulting in a goal difference of two. While they have shown resilience, their form has been slightly less dominant compared to Benfica's, especially given that they have played one more match than their opponents. The model gives Benfica a win probability of around 60%, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their superior goal-scoring ability and recent form. One caveat to consider is that Maritimo has yet to lose this season, which could lead to a tighter contest than anticipated. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season, providing a comprehensive overview of both teams.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Benfica average 2.6 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Maritimo vs Benfica| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 12.50 | 5.40 | 1.24 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 13.25 | 6.65 | 1.18 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 2.15 | 1.61 | |
| 12.00 | 5.50 | 1.22 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 2.10 | 1.73 | |
| 13.97 | 7.28 | 1.20 | 1.52 | 2.60 | — | — | |
| 7.53 | 4.94 | 1.24 | — | — | — | — | |
| 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 15.00 | 6.25 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 15.00 | 7.60 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 2.15 | 1.63 | |
| 10.50 | 5.50 | 1.27 | 1.52 | 2.33 | 1.93 | 1.74 | |
Betano | 11.25 | 5.60 | 1.28 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 10.00 | 6.10 | 1.26 | 1.56 | 2.45 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Benfica leads 9-1)In the last 10 matches between Maritimo and Benfica, Benfica has won 9 times, while Maritimo has secured just 1 victory, with no draws. The scorelines indicate a significant dominance by Benfica, as they have achieved several heavy wins, including a 7-1 result and two matches ending 5-0 and 6-0. Maritimo's only win came in June 2020, suggesting a long period of struggle against Benfica. Overall, the head-to-head record clearly shows a lopsided contest, heavily favoring Benfica in their encounters.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMaritimo have won 3 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Benfica 0-3 and drew with Academico Viseu 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 7L from the last 15 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Benfica have won 8 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Benfica 0-3 and beat Aarhus 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 4L from the last 31 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMaritimo4-3-3Confirmed
Benfica4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersMaritimo
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Guelho has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Guelho to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Maritimo have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Benfica 8.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 3.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 8.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
