Estudiantes L.P. vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Defensa Y Justicia
Match Preview
The model favours Estudiantes L.P. to win against Defensa Y Justicia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Estudiantes currently sit at the top of the league table with 31 points from 16 matches, reflecting a strong season with nine wins, four draws, and just three losses. Their defence has been particularly impressive, conceding only seven goals, which highlights their ability to control matches effectively. On the other hand, Defensa Y Justicia occupies the 10th position, having accumulated 19 points from the same number of matches. Their form has been concerning, as they have not secured a win in their last five outings, suffering five consecutive losses. This slump has contributed to a negative goal difference, with 21 goals conceded and only 18 scored, indicating struggles both in attack and defence. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Estudiantes L.P., with the projected score of 2-0 reflecting their solid performance this season. However, a key caveat is Defensa Y Justicia's potential for an upset, especially if they can find their form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from the leaders. For further details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Estudiantes L.P. have kept a clean sheet in 39% of matches. Defensa Y Justicia average 1.1 goals per game.
Estudiantes L.P. manage games at home, conceding just 0.94 goals per match. Defensa Y Justicia score 1.15 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 20.9% probability.
Estudiantes L.P. have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. win as the most likely scoreline at 20.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estudiantes L.P. clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Estudiantes L.P. are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Defensa Y Justicia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.30 | 5.75 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.75 | 3.35 | 4.95 | 2.38 | 1.47 | 2.22 | 1.57 | |
| 1.73 | 3.30 | 5.00 | 2.55 | 1.50 | — | — | |
| 1.81 | 3.34 | 4.95 | 2.54 | 1.52 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.10 | 5.00 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.73 | 3.25 | 5.25 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.78 | 3.41 | 5.04 | 2.48 | 1.54 | 2.22 | 1.59 | |
| 1.68 | 3.45 | 5.60 | 2.48 | 1.52 | 2.28 | 1.56 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.40 | 5.80 | 2.57 | 1.53 | 2.32 | 1.57 |
Superbet | 1.77 | 3.35 | 5.30 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.40 | 5.25 | 2.36 | 1.50 | 2.25 | 1.57 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Estudiantes L.P. and Defensa Y Justicia stands at 4 wins for each side, with 2 matches ending in a draw. This indicates a balanced contest, but the scorelines suggest a tendency for narrow results; five of the matches ended with a single goal difference, while only one match featured more than two goals. The most recent fixture ended in a 0-0 draw, highlighting the competitive nature of their encounters. Neither side has dominated the other in recent history, as both have alternated wins over the last ten meetings.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWD |
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LLWDW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LLLWW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WWLWW |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 | WDLLL |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LDDLD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstudiantes L.P. have won 10 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Independiente 0-2 and beat Rosario Central 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 10L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Defensa Y Justicia have won 4 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Racing Club 4-1 and lost to Gimnasia M. 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 8D 6L from the last 20 games (30% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstudiantes L.P.
No reported absences
Defensa Y Justicia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Defensa Y Justicia 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estudiantes L.P. have generated 1.34 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estudiantes L.P. player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
