Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P.
Match Preview
The model favours Estudiantes L.P. to win against Gimnasia L.P. with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Estudiantes currently sits at the top of the Liga Profesional standings, having accumulated 31 points from 16 matches. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and only 3 losses, they boast a strong goal difference of +12, having scored 19 goals while conceding just 7. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, with three wins in their last five matches, but their overall performance this season highlights their status as league leaders. On the other side, Gimnasia L.P. stands in 6th place with 26 points from 16 games. Their record shows 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, resulting in a goal difference of 0, having scored and conceded 19 goals each. Although they have shown resilience with three wins and a draw in their last five matches, their defensive record raises concerns, especially against a team that has been solid defensively like Estudiantes. The model gives Estudiantes a strong win probability, reflecting their superior league position and performance metrics. However, a potential caveat is Estudiantes' recent inconsistency, which could allow Gimnasia to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology, which utilizes expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has designed this in-house model to provide insights based on comprehensive data analysis.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Estudiantes L.P. have kept a clean sheet in 40% of matches. Gimnasia L.P. average 1.4 goals per game.
Estudiantes L.P. manage games at home, conceding just 0.91 goals per match. Gimnasia L.P. score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.3% probability.
Estudiantes L.P. have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. win as the most likely scoreline at 19.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estudiantes L.P. clean sheets, in line with their 40% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Estudiantes L.P. are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P.| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 2.96 | 3.80 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.04 | 2.88 | 4.30 | 2.48 | 1.43 | 2.15 | 1.61 | |
| 2.00 | 2.88 | 4.33 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| 2.11 | 2.96 | 4.51 | 2.79 | 1.48 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 2.90 | 3.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 2.80 | 3.90 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.65 | |
| 2.05 | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 2.08 | 2.92 | 4.37 | 2.48 | 1.43 | 2.15 | 1.63 | |
| 2.02 | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.18 | 1.61 | |
| 2.05 | 2.80 | 3.90 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.15 | 1.65 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.05 | 4.05 | 2.65 | 1.52 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.48 | 1.46 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Estudiantes L.P. leads 3-1)In the last 10 matches between Estudiantes L.P. and Gimnasia L.P., Estudiantes has won 3 times, Gimnasia has won once, and there have been 6 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive nature, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes, such as Estudiantes' 4-1 victory. Notably, Gimnasia's last win against Estudiantes was over six matches ago, which suggests a trend of difficulty in securing victories against this opponent. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced rivalry with a slight edge for Estudiantes.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LWDLW |
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDLWL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DWDDD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WWDWL |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WDDDD |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P. | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 26 | WWLLW |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DDDLW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstudiantes L.P. have won 13 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 and beat Estudiantes L.P. 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 14L from the last 43 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gimnasia L.P. have won 9 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rosario Central 1-2 and drew with Deportivo Riestra 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 11L from the last 31 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstudiantes L.P.
No reported absences
Gimnasia L.P.
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Y. Perez has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Gimnasia L.P. 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estudiantes L.P. have generated 1.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estudiantes L.P. player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
