San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe
Match Preview
The model favours San Lorenzo to win this match against Union Santa Fe, with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Currently positioned 7th in the league, San Lorenzo has a record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, accumulating 22 points from 16 matches. Their goal difference stands at zero, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded. While their recent form shows just one win in the last five matches, their overall performance suggests they remain competitive in the league. Union Santa Fe, sitting just below in 8th place, has a similar record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, earning 21 points. They have scored significantly more goals than San Lorenzo, netting 24, but have also conceded more, with 20 against them. Their recent form, however, has been less than ideal, with only one win in their last five matches, which indicates a struggle to maintain consistency. The model output indicates a slight edge for San Lorenzo, giving them a win probability of around 52%. While they are favoured to win, a key caveat is their recent struggle to convert draws into wins, which could lead to a disappointing result if they fail to capitalize on scoring opportunities. For more details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
San Lorenzo have kept a clean sheet in 52% of matches. Union Santa Fe average 1.5 goals per game.
San Lorenzo manage games at home, conceding just 0.73 goals per match. Union Santa Fe score 1.46 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.0% probability.
San Lorenzo have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature San Lorenzo clean sheets, in line with their 52% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. San Lorenzo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.48 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.46 | 2.92 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.06 | 1.66 | |
| 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 2.53 | 3.04 | 3.24 | 2.70 | 1.50 | — | — | |
| 2.43 | 2.85 | 2.87 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 2.88 | 3.00 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.50 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.50 | 2.97 | 3.16 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.06 | 1.68 | |
| 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.70 | 1.45 | 2.12 | 1.64 | |
| 2.40 | 2.88 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
Betano | 2.52 | 2.92 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 1.52 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.41 | 1.48 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (San Lorenzo leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between San Lorenzo and Union Santa Fe, San Lorenzo has won 3 times, Union Santa Fe 2 times, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, four of the encounters have ended with a score of 1-1 or 0-0, suggesting a tendency towards low-scoring affairs. Union Santa Fe's most recent win was in June 2024, highlighting that while they have had success, their victories have been less frequent compared to the draws and San Lorenzo's wins.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDLWL |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LWDLW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DWDDD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WWDWL |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WDDDD |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | WLDWL |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 | WWWLL |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DDDLW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Lorenzo have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0 and beat Union Santa Fe 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 15D 8L from the last 33 games (30% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Union Santa Fe have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Aldosivi 1-3 and lost to San Lorenzo 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 10L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Lorenzo4-4-2Confirmed
Union Santa Fe4-1-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Lorenzo
No reported absences
Union Santa Fe
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Rey Hilfer has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
San Lorenzo have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Union Santa Fe 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Lorenzo have generated 0.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Lorenzo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
