FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match Preview
The model favours FC Cincinnati to win this match against San Jose Earthquakes, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Cincinnati currently sits in 7th position in the standings, having accumulated 20 points from 15 matches. With a goal difference of -1, they have scored 36 goals while conceding 37. Their recent form shows a slight improvement with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating they are finding some rhythm at a crucial point in the season. In contrast, San Jose Earthquakes are in 2nd place with a strong record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, totaling 32 points. They have been prolific offensively with 34 goals scored, but their defense has been notably solid, conceding only 15 goals, which reflects a goal difference of +19. However, their recent form is concerning, as they have managed just one win in their last five matches, suffering four losses. This decline could impact their confidence going into the match. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for FC Cincinnati. While they are favoured to win, a potential caveat is that if San Jose can regain their earlier season form and shore up their defense, they could pose a significant challenge. For further details on how we reached this prediction, the full method is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.4% probability.
FC Cincinnati have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 FC Cincinnati win as the most likely scoreline at 11.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Cincinnati are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.87 | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.28 | 3.55 | 1.28 | 3.30 | |
| 1.83 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 3.38 | 1.28 | 3.26 | |
| 1.87 | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.25 | 3.80 | 1.25 | 3.80 | |
| 1.93 | 4.27 | 3.56 | 1.29 | 3.72 | — | — | |
| 1.87 | 4.09 | 3.23 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 4.33 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.30 | 3.30 | |
| 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 3.60 | 1.30 | 3.40 | |
| 1.85 | 4.25 | 3.45 | 1.29 | 3.50 | 1.30 | 3.15 | |
| 1.80 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 1.30 | 3.30 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.30 | 3.55 | 1.29 | 3.35 |
Superbet | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.29 | 3.60 | 1.31 | 3.30 |
BetVictor | 1.87 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 1.25 | 3.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (FC Cincinnati leads 2-1)In the last three matches between FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes, FC Cincinnati has won twice, while San Jose Earthquakes has won once. The scorelines indicate a noticeable trend, with FC Cincinnati achieving a dominant 6-0 victory and a solid 4-2 win, suggesting they have been the stronger side in recent encounters. San Jose's sole victory was a narrow 1-0 win, which highlights the competitive nature of that match but also reflects the overall dominance of FC Cincinnati in this head-to-head record.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 1 | 26 | WLWWD |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Cincinnati have won 12 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-0 and beat CF Pachuca 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 8L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 6 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 and beat Portland Timbers 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 7L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Cincinnati3-4-1-2Confirmed
San Jose Earthquakes4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersFC Cincinnati3
San Jose Earthquakes5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Rivas has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by V. Rivas to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Cincinnati have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; San Jose Earthquakes 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Cincinnati have generated 1.97 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Cincinnati player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
