Flamengo vs Corinthians Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flamengo vs Corinthians
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Corinthians, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flamengo currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 48 points from 24 matches. They boast a strong season record with 14 wins, 6 draws, and only 4 losses, while their goal difference of +27 highlights their offensive strength and defensive stability. Their recent form, with three wins and one draw in their last five matches, suggests they are in good shape heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Corinthians are positioned in 10th place with 32 points from 25 matches. Their season has been less consistent, with a record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses. The team has struggled to find form recently, managing just one win in their last five outings, alongside three losses and one draw. Their goal difference of just +1 indicates they have had difficulties both scoring and conceding, which could pose challenges against a top side like Flamengo. According to the model, Flamengo has a win probability of around 60%, with the projected scoreline of 2-0 reflecting their current form and standing. However, a key caveat to consider is that if Corinthians manage to tighten their defense and exploit any lapses from Flamengo, they could pose a threat. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches. Corinthians average 1.1 goals per game.
Flamengo manage games at home, conceding just 0.81 goals per match. Corinthians score 1.05 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.3% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Flamengo win as the most likely scoreline at 18.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Flamengo clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flamengo vs Corinthians| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 4.20 | 8.80 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| 1.22 | 5.70 | 13.00 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 2.33 | 1.52 | |
| 1.20 | 5.50 | 13.00 | 1.60 | 2.10 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.26 | 5.68 | 13.62 | 1.69 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.22 | 7.43 | 1.89 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.22 | 5.75 | 13.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.24 | 6.08 | 13.80 | 1.73 | 2.15 | 2.33 | 1.54 | |
| 1.46 | 4.20 | 7.00 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 2.04 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 1.27 | 5.90 | 15.00 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 1.65 | 2.06 | 2.30 | 1.53 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 5-2)In the last ten matches between Flamengo and Corinthians, Flamengo has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Corinthians has won 2 times. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of tight contests and some decisive victories, such as Flamengo's 4-0 win. The scorelines also show a tendency for low-scoring matches, with four games ending 1-0 or 0-0. The most recent win for Corinthians was in February 2026, suggesting that Flamengo has had the upper hand in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 11 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 32 | LLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlamengo have won 16 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Flamengo 2-0 and beat Flamengo 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 28W 9D 6L from the last 43 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Corinthians have won 6 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 10 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Coritiba 2-1 and drew with Rosario Central 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 13D 11L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlamengo
No reported absences
Corinthians
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Flamengo have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Corinthians 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
