Flora Tallinn vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place, Flora has secured 39 points from 21 matches, boasting a strong goal difference of +18 with 42 goals scored and 24 conceded. However, their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, indicating a need to regain consistency. Paide, positioned fourth with 36 points from 22 matches, has had a mixed season overall. They have recorded 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, resulting in a goal difference of +5. Their recent form shows some improvement, with a win and two draws in their last five matches, suggesting they are capable of challenging Flora, especially if they can maintain momentum. According to the model, Flora Tallinn has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Paide's chances sit around 25%. The projected score reflects the competitive nature of the match, with one key market indicating a strong backing for Flora. A potential caveat to consider is Flora's recent struggles, which could lead to an upset if they fail to recover their form. The full method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Flora Tallinn and Paide shows Flora with 4 wins, 1 draw, and Paide with 5 wins over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close encounters, including a notable 1-1 draw. However, Paide has a slight edge, with recent results showing they have won 4 of the last 5 matches, suggesting a shift in momentum. Additionally, Flora's last victory against Paide came in 2026, indicating that they have struggled to secure wins in recent fixtures. Overall, the matches have been tightly contested, with a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 43 | 56 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | LWWWD |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 22 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 25 | 19 | 42 | WLWLW |
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 39 | WDWLW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 32 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 28 | WLLLW |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 25 | LLLLW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 24 | LWWLD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | -37 | 17 | LDLWW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 12 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kuressaare 2-3 and lost to Inter Club d'Escaldes 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 2D 14L from the last 38 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paide have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Trans Narva 1-1 and lost to Rapid Vienna 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 11L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
