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Trans Narva vs Tammeka Prediction, Tips & Odds

Trans Narva vs Tammeka

MeistriliigaRegular Season - 25
Trans Narva
#10 · Meistriliiga
LDWLW
VS
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion, Narva
Tammeka
#5 · Meistriliiga
WWWLW

Match Preview

The model favours Tammeka to win this match against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Tammeka currently occupies fifth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having played 20 matches with a record of nine wins, two draws, and nine losses. Their goal difference of -8 suggests they have had a challenging season defensively, but they still manage to score more goals than they concede overall, with 23 goals for and 31 against. Tammeka's recent form has seen them secure three wins from their last five matches, indicating a positive trend as they look to consolidate their position in the top half of the table. In contrast, Trans Narva sits at the bottom of the league in tenth place, with a disappointing record of five wins, two draws, and 16 losses from 23 matches. Their goal-scoring woes are evident with only 18 goals scored, while their defense has conceded 51 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -33. Despite a slight improvement in form with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, they remain vulnerable and struggle to maintain consistency. The model predicts a win probability of approximately 70% for Tammeka and highlights their potential to secure a solid win. However, a key caveat is that if Trans Narva can capitalize on their home advantage and maintain a strong defensive performance, they could disrupt Tammeka's plans. The full methodology behind this prediction, which utilizes expected goals and actual results throughout the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 5-4)
5 Trans Narva1 Draw4 Tammeka
07 Apr
Trans Narva
3-0
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
17 Jan
Trans Narva
1-2
Tammeka
Friendlies Clubs
Nov 25
Tammeka
2-0
Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
Aug 25
Trans Narva
4-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
May 25
Trans Narva
4-0
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
Apr 25
Tammeka
1-2
Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
Nov 24
Tammeka
3-3
Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
Aug 24
Trans Narva
0-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
May 24
Tammeka
0-2
Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
Mar 24
Trans Narva
0-5
Tammeka
Meistriliiga

In the last 10 matches between Trans Narva and Tammeka, Trans Narva has won 5 times, Tammeka has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Trans Narva achieving several convincing victories, including a 4-0 and a 5-0 win, suggesting they can dominate when in form. Conversely, Tammeka's wins include a narrow 2-1 victory and a tight 1-0 win, showing they can compete closely. The draw in 2024 highlights the potential for tightly contested matches, while the last time Tammeka won against Trans Narva was in August 2024, indicating a recent competitive balance.

Meistriliiga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
FC Levadia Tallinn
23175161184356
WWWDW
2
Kalju Nomme
24135643192444
LWWWD
3
Flora Tallinn
22140844251942
WLWLW
4
Paide
2311663830839
WDWLW
5
Tammeka
2110292431-732
WWLLW
6
Laagri
2491143440-628
WLLLW
8
Nõmme United
2481154158-1725
LLLLW
9
Kuressaare
2473142539-1424
LWWLD
10
Trans Narva
2452171855-3717
LDLWW

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Trans NarvaHome
4W1D7L
12 playedGF 14 · GA 201.08 pts/game
TammekaAway
4W1D5L
10 playedGF 11 · GA 201.30 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Trans NarvaTammeka
1.41Goals p.g.1.88
1.97Goals conceded p.g.1.41
22%Clean sheets38%
24%Win rate50%
3.38Avg goals in match3.28
Trans Narva
Recent Form

Trans Narva have won 7 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Trans Narva 1-1 and beat Trans Narva 8-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 21L from the last 37 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Trans NarvaAll competitions
21 Aug
FC Levadia Tallinn
4-0
Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
16 Aug
Trans Narva
1-1
Paide
Meistriliiga
11 Aug
Trans Narva
8-0
Kompanii Marjamaa
Cup
08 Aug
Trans Narva
0-2
Kalju Nomme
Meistriliiga
31 Jul
Nõmme United
1-2
Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
22 Jul
Trans Narva
0-0
Flora II
Cup
9
Win
24%
7
Draw
19%
21
Lost
57%
Tammeka
Recent Form

Tammeka have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Nõmme United 0-1 and beat Rumori Calcio 0-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 16W 3D 13L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: TammekaAll competitions
22 Aug
Tammeka
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
14 Aug
Nõmme United
0-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
05 Aug
Rumori Calcio
0-1
Tammeka
Cup
02 Aug
Kalju Nomme
5-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
24 Jul
Tammeka
19-0
Zealot Sporting
Cup
11 Jul
Vaprus
5-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
16
Win
50%
3
Draw
9%
13
Lost
41%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Trans Narva

No reported absences

Tammeka

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.