Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Vaprus


Match Preview
The model favours Vaprus to win this match against Kuressaare, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Vaprus currently sits in 6th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 27 points from 21 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid attack, scoring 29 goals, although they have conceded 39. Recently, Vaprus has shown improved form, winning three of their last five matches, which indicates a trend of positive performance as they aim to secure a higher position in the league. On the other hand, Kuressaare is positioned 9th with 21 points from 22 matches. Their goal difference of -14 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 36 goals while scoring only 22. However, they have recently found some rhythm, recording three wins, a draw, and just one loss in their last five matches. This resurgence could provide them with the confidence needed to challenge Vaprus. The model predicts a win probability of approximately 55% for Vaprus, with a key market indicator suggesting they are likely to score at least two goals. However, a potential caveat is Kuressaare's recent form, which could lead to an upset if they can maintain their momentum. For a more detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 5-3)



















In the last 10 encounters between Kuressaare and Vaprus, Vaprus has won 5 times, while Kuressaare has claimed victory on 3 occasions, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive matches, with Vaprus achieving a notable 9-2 win in a friendly, although most league matches have been closely contested. The results include several narrow victories, such as a 1-0 win for Kuressaare and a 2-1 win for Vaprus, highlighting the potential for tight contests. Notably, Kuressaare's last win against Vaprus in league play was in October 2025, suggesting a challenging trend for them in recent matchups.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 43 | 56 | WWWDW | |
| 2 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | LWWWD | |
| 3 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 39 | LWLWW | |
| 4 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 36 | DWLWD | |
| 5 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 32 | WWLLW | |
| 6 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 28 | WLLLW | |
| 7 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 27 | LDLWL | |
| 8 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 25 | LLLWW | |
| 9 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 24 | LWWLD | |
| 10 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | -37 | 17 | LDLWW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Kuressaare have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kuressaare 3-2 and beat Kuressaare 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 18L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.













Vaprus have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 3-1 and beat Phoenix 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 17L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
