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Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds

Kuressaare vs Vaprus

MeistriliigaRegular Season - 25
Kuressaare
#9 · Meistriliiga
LWWWL
VS
Kuressaare Linnastaadion, Kuressaare (1,600)
Vaprus
#7 · Meistriliiga
LWDWL

Match Preview

The model favours Vaprus to win this match against Kuressaare, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Vaprus currently sits in 6th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 27 points from 21 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid attack, scoring 29 goals, although they have conceded 39. Recently, Vaprus has shown improved form, winning three of their last five matches, which indicates a trend of positive performance as they aim to secure a higher position in the league. On the other hand, Kuressaare is positioned 9th with 21 points from 22 matches. Their goal difference of -14 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 36 goals while scoring only 22. However, they have recently found some rhythm, recording three wins, a draw, and just one loss in their last five matches. This resurgence could provide them with the confidence needed to challenge Vaprus. The model predicts a win probability of approximately 55% for Vaprus, with a key market indicator suggesting they are likely to score at least two goals. However, a potential caveat is Kuressaare's recent form, which could lead to an upset if they can maintain their momentum. For a more detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 5-3)
3 Kuressaare2 Draw5 Vaprus
21 Apr
Kuressaare
0-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
31 Jan
Vaprus
9-2
Kuressaare
Friendlies Clubs
Oct 25
Vaprus
0-1
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
Jul 25
Kuressaare
2-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
Jun 25
Vaprus
2-1
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
Apr 25
Kuressaare
1-0
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
Feb 25
Kuressaare
0-2
Vaprus
Friendlies Clubs
Oct 24
Vaprus
3-1
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
Jul 24
Kuressaare
1-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
May 24
Kuressaare
2-2
Vaprus
Meistriliiga

In the last 10 encounters between Kuressaare and Vaprus, Vaprus has won 5 times, while Kuressaare has claimed victory on 3 occasions, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive matches, with Vaprus achieving a notable 9-2 win in a friendly, although most league matches have been closely contested. The results include several narrow victories, such as a 1-0 win for Kuressaare and a 2-1 win for Vaprus, highlighting the potential for tight contests. Notably, Kuressaare's last win against Vaprus in league play was in October 2025, suggesting a challenging trend for them in recent matchups.

Meistriliiga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
FC Levadia Tallinn
23175161184356
WWWDW
2
Kalju Nomme
24135643192444
LWWWD
3
Flora Tallinn
21130842241839
LWLWW
4
Paide
2210663429536
DWLWD
5
Tammeka
2110292431-732
WWLLW
6
Laagri
2491143440-628
WLLLW
7
Vaprus
2283113042-1227
LDLWL
8
Nõmme United
2381144054-1425
LLLWW
9
Kuressaare
2473142539-1424
LWWLD
10
Trans Narva
2452171855-3717
LDLWW

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
KuressaareHome
4W2D5L
11 playedGF 12 · GA 161.27 pts/game
VaprusAway
3W1D7L
11 playedGF 11 · GA 240.91 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
KuressaareVaprus
1.51Goals p.g.1.76
1.74Goals conceded p.g.1.88
17%Clean sheets21%
34%Win rate38%
3.26Avg goals in match3.65
Kuressaare
Recent Form

Kuressaare have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kuressaare 3-2 and beat Kuressaare 5-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 18L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: KuressaareAll competitions
22 Aug
Tammeka
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
16 Aug
Flora Tallinn
2-3
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
11 Aug
Kristiine JK
0-8
Kuressaare
Cup
07 Aug
Kuressaare
3-2
Laagri
Meistriliiga
02 Aug
Paide
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
23 Jul
Kuressaare
5-1
Welco X
Cup
12
Win
34%
5
Draw
14%
18
Lost
51%
Vaprus
Recent Form

Vaprus have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 3-1 and beat Phoenix 0-5.

Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 17L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: VaprusAll competitions
16 Aug
Kalju Nomme
3-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
12 Aug
Phoenix
0-5
Vaprus
Cup
02 Aug
Vaprus
1-1
FC Levadia Tallinn
Meistriliiga
21 Jul
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1-4
Vaprus
Cup
18 Jul
Trans Narva
3-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
11 Jul
Vaprus
5-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
13
Win
38%
4
Draw
12%
17
Lost
50%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Kuressaare

No reported absences

Vaprus

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.