Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place, AZ Alkmaar has made a strong start to the season, winning their opening match with a solid goal difference of +2. Their form has been impressive, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, showcasing their ability to both score and defend effectively. On the other hand, Fortuna Sittard finds itself in fifth place after one game, having drawn their opener. While they have managed to score two goals, they also conceded two, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a team like AZ Alkmaar. Their recent form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches, suggests inconsistency that may hinder their performance against a more stable opponent. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for AZ Alkmaar, projecting a score of 2-1 in their favour. However, a potential caveat is that if Fortuna Sittard can tighten their defence and leverage their home advantage, they could pose a greater challenge than expected. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.65 | 4.30 | 1.61 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 4.70 | 4.15 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 5.08 | 4.34 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 2.70 | — | — | |
| 4.29 | 3.96 | 1.61 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 5.00 | 4.10 | 1.65 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.84 | 4.28 | 1.66 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
| 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.43 | |
| 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 5.20 | 4.30 | 1.67 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 4.80 | 4.30 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 2.65 | 1.54 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AZ Alkmaar leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar has dominated with 8 wins, while Fortuna Sittard has secured only 2 victories, and there have been no draws. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with AZ Alkmaar achieving several comfortable wins, including a 4-0 and a 3-0 victory. Fortuna Sittard's successes have been narrow, with a notable 4-3 win, but overall, they have struggled against AZ Alkmaar, who last lost to them in 2025. This record highlights a significant advantage for AZ Alkmaar in their head-to-head encounters.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | LWD |
| 16 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFortuna Sittard have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to AZ Alkmaar 0-2 and beat Cambuur 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 12L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat AZ Alkmaar 0-2 and beat Utrecht 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersFortuna Sittard4
AZ Alkmaar4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Gozubuyuk has averaged 1.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fortuna Sittard have averaged 2.8 corners per match at home; AZ Alkmaar 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
