Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK
Match Preview
The model favours Fredrikstad to win against Kristiansund BK, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Positioned 11th in the league, Fredrikstad has secured 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses this season, accumulating 17 points. Their goal difference of -11 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to find the net 16 times, which could be crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, Kristiansund BK sits at the bottom of the table in 15th place, with only 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, totaling 12 points. Their goal-scoring has been a struggle this season, with just 13 goals, while conceding 25, leading to a goal difference of -12. This lack of offensive output may hinder their chances against a mid-table side like Fredrikstad. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 55% for Fredrikstad, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their slight edge. However, one caveat is that if Kristiansund can tighten their defence and improve their finishing, they might pose a challenge. The full analysis method, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Fredrikstad have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fredrikstad clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Fredrikstad are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.65 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.83 | 3.65 | 3.95 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.88 | 3.81 | 4.17 | 1.78 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.26 | 3.50 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.88 | 3.74 | 4.04 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
| 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.14 | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 4-3)In the last nine encounters between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK, Fredrikstad has won 4 times, Kristiansund BK has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The match results indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close contests, including 4 matches decided by a single goal. Notably, the scores reflect a mix of narrow victories and one heavy win by Fredrikstad, who triumphed 4-1 in their most recent fixture. The last win for Kristiansund BK came in 2026, suggesting a challenging period for them in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | 31 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 40 | LWWDW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 34 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 27 | WLDWL |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 | DLLLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | LWLLD |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 15 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFredrikstad have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kristiansund BK 1-0 and beat Sandefjord 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 12L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kristiansund BK have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kristiansund BK 1-0 and lost to KFUM Oslo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 15L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFredrikstad5-4-1Confirmed
Kristiansund BK4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersFredrikstad4
Kristiansund BK3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Stofringshaug has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Fredrikstad have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Kristiansund BK 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fredrikstad have generated 1.04 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fredrikstad player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
