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Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction, Tips & Odds

Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC

UEFA Europa League3rd Qualifying Round
Gornik Zabrze
DWLLW
VS
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Ferencvarosi TC
DLWWW
★ OUR PICK
Gornik Zabrze to Win
Slight home form and superior underlying numbers over Ferencvarosi TC make Gornik Zabrze the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.53
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.53 (implied 39.5%) for Gornik Zabrze to Win. Our experts calculate a 42.0% probability (an expert ratio of 2.38). We chose this bet because our experts rate it more likely than the bookmaker price implies (42.0% vs 39.5%), driven by Gornik Zabrze's stronger form and superior underlying numbers. That edge makes it our most confident selection for this match.

Match Preview

The model favours Ferencvarosi TC to win this match against Gornik Zabrze, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Ferencvarosi has shown strong form recently, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a solid performance as they head into this crucial tie. Their ability to secure results consistently could play a pivotal role in this encounter. On the other hand, Gornik Zabrze has had a mixed bag of results, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistent form may affect their confidence and performance in a high-stakes match like this one. The team will need to find a way to improve their results if they are to challenge effectively. According to the model's output, Ferencvarosi TC has a higher win probability, reflecting their recent form and overall performance. However, a potential caveat for Ferencvarosi is the possibility of complacency, as they may underestimate Gornik Zabrze's desire to perform on home soil. The full methodology of our analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season to inform predictions.

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Gornik Zabrze Win41%2.53
Draw24%3.46
Ferencvarosi TC Win36%2.88

Best Betting Odds

Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC
Bookmaker1X2
1X2
1xBet
2.533.462.88

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XGornik Zabrze or Draw
64%
12Gornik Zabrze or Ferencvarosi TC
76%
X2Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
59%

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (Ferencvarosi TC leads 1-0)
0 Gornik Zabrze0 Draw1 Ferencvarosi TC
05 Aug
Ferencvarosi TC
1-0
Gornik Zabrze
UEFA Europa League

In the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Ferencvarosi TC, Ferencvarosi TC has won 1 match, while Gornik Zabrze has yet to secure a victory, resulting in a record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss. The sole match played ended with a narrow 1-0 victory for Ferencvarosi TC, indicating a tightly contested encounter. Gornik Zabrze has not won against Ferencvarosi TC in their only meeting, suggesting challenges in overcoming this opponent.

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Gornik ZabrzeFerencvarosi TC
1.53Goals p.g.2.24
0.93Goals conceded p.g.0.88
40%Clean sheets44%
53%Win rate72%
2.47Avg goals in match3.12
1.76xG per game
0.03xGA per game
50%Possession %55%
4.8Shots on target / game5.6
6.9Corners per game5.1
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Form

Gornik Zabrze have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Fenerbahçe 1-1 and beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 4L from the last 15 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Gornik ZabrzeAll competitions
29 Jul
Gornik Zabrze
1-1
Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
25 Jul
Gornik Zabrze
2-1
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa
21 Jul
Fenerbahçe
1-0
Gornik Zabrze
UEFA Champions League
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3-1
Gornik Zabrze
Super Cup
10 Jul
FC Nordsjaelland
0-2
Gornik Zabrze
Friendlies Clubs
04 Jul
WSG Wattens
0-0
Gornik Zabrze
Friendlies Clubs
8
Win
53%
3
Draw
20%
4
Lost
27%
Ferencvarosi TC
Recent Form

Ferencvarosi TC have won 7 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Paks 4-2 and beat Twente 1-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 18W 3D 4L from the last 25 games (72% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Ferencvarosi TCAll competitions
30 Jul
Ferencvarosi TC
2-2
Twente
UEFA Europa League
26 Jul
Paks
4-2
Ferencvarosi TC
NB I
23 Jul
Twente
1-2
Ferencvarosi TC
UEFA Europa League
16 Jul
Ferencvarosi TC
3-0
Vojvodina
UEFA Europa League
09 Jul
Vojvodina
1-2
Ferencvarosi TC
UEFA Europa League
01 Jul
Ferencvarosi TC
1-0
Qarabag
Friendlies Clubs
18
Win
72%
3
Draw
12%
4
Lost
16%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Gornik Zabrze

No reported absences

Ferencvarosi TC

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

Value Bets
Gornik Zabrze Win2.53 (40.9%)
Ferencvarosi TC Win2.88 (35.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.46 (23.5%)

Yellow Card Prediction

The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.

Corner Prediction

Gornik Zabrze have averaged 6.9 corners per match at home; Ferencvarosi TC 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Gornik Zabrze have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Gornik Zabrze player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
Gornik Zabrze to Win

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.