Saburtalo vs Larne Prediction, Tips & Odds
Saburtalo vs Larne
Match Preview
The model favours Larne to win this match against Saburtalo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Larne enters this fixture with a strong recent form, having secured three wins in their last five matches. Their ability to bounce back after two initial losses demonstrates resilience, and they will be looking to build on this momentum in the UEFA Europa League. On the other hand, Saburtalo has managed two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have shown some capability to earn points, their inconsistency could be a concern as they face a team in better form. The balance of their results suggests they may struggle to maintain pressure against a more confident opponent like Larne. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Larne, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to note is the odds on Larne winning, which reflect their recent strength. However, if Saburtalo can leverage home advantage and exploit any lapses in Larne's defence, they could turn the tide. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Saburtalo have kept a clean sheet in 24% of matches. Larne average 1.4 goals per game.
Saburtalo manage games at home, conceding just 1.24 goals per match. Larne score 1.42 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.9% probability.
Saburtalo have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Saburtalo win as the most likely scoreline at 17.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Saburtalo clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Saburtalo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Saburtalo vs Larne| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 3.65 | 5.50 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 1.93 | 1.75 | |
| 1.66 | 3.66 | 5.10 | 2.03 | 1.76 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 1.69 | 3.65 | 5.01 | 2.05 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.32 | 4.58 | 2.05 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.65 | 3.40 | 5.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 5.30 | 2.09 | 1.81 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
| 1.64 | 3.60 | 5.20 | 1.98 | 1.70 | 1.96 | 1.72 | |
| 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.20 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 1.66 | 3.75 | 5.45 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.76 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.25 | 1.97 | 1.72 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Saburtalo and Larne stands at one match, with both teams drawing once and neither winning. The only encounter ended in a goalless draw, indicating a tightly contested match with no goals scored. This lack of scoring suggests a potentially defensive approach from both sides, and there have been no victories for either team in their limited history. The absence of wins may reflect evenly matched capabilities or a lack of offensive output in their meeting.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSaburtalo have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Larne 2-1 and lost to Slovan Bratislava 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 4L from the last 17 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Larne have won 4 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Larne 0-0 and lost to Saburtalo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 5L from the last 19 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSaburtalo
No reported absences
Larne
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Saburtalo have averaged 0.0 corners per match at home; Larne 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Saburtalo have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 41% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. They put 0.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Saburtalo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
