Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc
Match Preview
The model favours Gremio to win against Chapecoense-sc, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Gremio currently sits in 15th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 25 points from 22 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, with six wins, seven draws, and nine losses. Despite a negative goal difference of -6, they have shown some resilience in their recent form, managing to secure two wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Chapecoense-sc is struggling at the bottom of the table in 20th position, with only 11 points from 22 games. Their season has been particularly challenging, marked by just one win, eight draws, and an alarming 13 losses. They have conceded 46 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -23, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities. In their last five matches, they have failed to secure a victory, drawing three times and losing twice. The model gives Gremio a win probability of approximately 60%, reflecting their stronger position and form compared to Chapecoense-sc. However, a potential caveat is Gremio's inconsistency, which could allow Chapecoense-sc to snatch an unexpected result. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 34% of matches. Chapecoense-sc average 1.0 goals per game.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 0.98 goals per match. Chapecoense-sc score 1.02 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Gremio have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Gremio win as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Gremio clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Gremio are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.52 | 4.00 | 6.25 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.53 | 4.05 | 5.80 | 1.84 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 1.80 | |
| 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.54 | 4.20 | 6.05 | 1.88 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 3.62 | 5.13 | 1.88 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.75 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.58 | 4.17 | 5.97 | 1.88 | 1.97 | 1.88 | 1.82 | |
| 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 1.80 | 1.96 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.15 | 6.10 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.00 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc, Gremio has won 4 times, there have been 4 draws, and Chapecoense-sc has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tightly contested matches, as evidenced by the four draws and the presence of narrow victories on both sides. Notably, the most recent match resulted in a 1-2 win for Chapecoense-sc, showcasing their ability to secure victories against Gremio. Overall, while Gremio has a slight edge in wins, the outcomes have been relatively balanced, with no team dominating the head-to-head encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 14 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Internacional 3-1 and beat Chapecoense-sc 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 12L from the last 44 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chapecoense-sc have won 4 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Chapecoense-sc 3-1 and lost to Cruzeiro 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 19L from the last 42 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersGremio5
Chapecoense-sc7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Pereira has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Chapecoense-sc 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Gremio have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Gremio player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
