Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours Gremio to win against Vasco DA Gama, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Gremio currently sits in 15th place with 25 points from 23 matches, having achieved 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses this season. Their goal difference of -7 indicates struggles defensively, but they have shown some resilience, securing two wins in their last five matches, including a recent victory that could boost their confidence. On the other hand, Vasco DA Gama is in 16th place, also with 25 points but from 24 matches, reflecting a slightly less effective season with 6 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses. Their goal difference of -12 suggests they have faced significant challenges at the back, conceding 39 goals. Vasco's recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, which demonstrates their potential to compete, though inconsistency remains a concern. The model outputs a win probability favouring Gremio, reflecting their marginally better position in the standings and recent form trends. However, a caveat to consider is that both teams are closely matched, and a slip-up in defense could easily shift the outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 0.98 goals per match. Vasco DA Gama score 1.36 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Gremio have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Gremio are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.22 | 3.20 | 2.23 | 2.04 | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.42 | 3.27 | 2.30 | 2.09 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 2.77 | 3.06 | 2.36 | 2.08 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.25 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.31 | 3.29 | 2.29 | 2.08 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.35 | 2.10 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.25 | 1.96 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Gremio and Vasco DA Gama, Gremio has won 5 times, Vasco DA Gama has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Gremio achieving a notable 4-0 victory in December 2020, while Vasco's wins have been tighter, including a 2-1 result. The matches have generally been competitive, with several low-scoring games, as seen in the 1-0 outcomes. The most recent match saw Vasco winning 2-1 in March 2026, showing that both teams can claim victories, but Gremio has a slight edge historically.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 25 | LWLLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 14 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Internacional 3-1 and beat Chapecoense-sc 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 12L from the last 44 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 0-2 and lost to Palmeiras 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 13D 13L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGremio4-1-4-1Confirmed
Vasco DA Gama4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersGremio
No reported absences
Vasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Gremio have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Gremio player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
