Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Match Preview
The model favours VfB Stuttgart to win against Hamburger SV, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Stuttgart currently sits just one place above their opponents in the standings, but their offensive output has been significantly better, scoring six goals compared to Hamburger SV’s two. Despite both teams having the same number of points, Stuttgart's goal difference of -3 highlights a more competitive attack, which could prove pivotal in this matchup. Hamburger SV has struggled this season, sitting in 16th place with a record of just one win in four matches. Their defensive woes are evident, having conceded 13 goals, which is the worst in the league. The team’s recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, yet they are still searching for consistency. Improvement in both their defense and attack will be crucial if they hope to turn their season around. On the other hand, VfB Stuttgart has shown glimpses of potential with three wins in their last five matches. The team's ability to score, despite their own defensive issues, gives them an edge in this encounter. With both teams having the same point tally, Stuttgart will be eager to capitalize on Hamburger SV's defensive frailties to secure a much-needed victory. The model gives VfB Stuttgart a 55.2% win probability, with an expectation of over 2.5 goals at 66.6%. One caveat is that if Hamburger SV can tighten their defense and find a more cohesive attacking rhythm, they might make this a closer contest than anticipated. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, created by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.0% probability.
VfB Stuttgart have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. VfB Stuttgart are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.67 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.51 | 4.41 | 1.76 | 1.39 | 2.90 | 1.43 | 2.66 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (VfB Stuttgart leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart, VfB Stuttgart leads with 6 wins, while Hamburger SV has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Stuttgart achieving dominant victories, including a 4-0 win and multiple matches with at least three goals scored. Hamburger SV's wins have been narrower, with a maximum margin of just one goal, showcasing a tendency for tighter contests in their victories. Notably, Stuttgart has not lost to Hamburger SV in their last five encounters, emphasizing their current upper hand in this rivalry.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHamburger SV have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat 1. FC Köln 2-1 and drew with Lille 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 11L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
VfB Stuttgart have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 and lost to Bayern München 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 11L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHamburger SV
No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hamburger SV have averaged 1.0 corners per match at home; VfB Stuttgart 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
VfB Stuttgart have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. VfB Stuttgart player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
