Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun
Match Preview
The model favours Yunnan Yukun to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Yunnan Yukun currently occupies second place in the league standings, with 34 points from 23 matches, showcasing a strong season overall. They have secured 10 wins, contributing to a solid goal difference of +4, and their recent form has been encouraging, with three wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Hangzhou Greentown is positioned 11th in the league, having accumulated 24 points from 22 games. Their performance has been inconsistent, with eight wins and a goal difference of -6. Their recent form reflects this inconsistency, managing only two wins in their last five matches, which could impact their confidence going into this fixture. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Yunnan Yukun. However, a potential caveat is that if Hangzhou Greentown can improve their defensive record and capitalize on their home advantage, they may pose a greater challenge than anticipated. The full method, which includes analysis through expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.6% probability.
Hangzhou Greentown have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Hangzhou Greentown are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.08 | 3.98 | 2.88 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 2.98 | |
| 2.05 | 4.10 | 2.88 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.17 | 3.88 | 2.96 | 1.37 | 3.00 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.80 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.35 | 3.00 | |
| 2.14 | 4.10 | 2.97 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 3.04 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.65 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.33 | 3.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Hangzhou Greentown leads 1-0)In the last two matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun, Hangzhou Greentown has won once and there has been one draw, while Yunnan Yukun has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Hangzhou's 3-1 win suggesting a degree of dominance in their victory, while the 1-1 draw reflects a more balanced contest. Yunnan Yukun's inability to win in these encounters highlights their struggles against Hangzhou, particularly as they have not claimed a victory in their last two meetings.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 48 | LWLDD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 36 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 36 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 36 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 35 | DWWLW |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 | LWWWL |
| 11 | Hangzhou Greentown | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 25 | DLLWD |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 18 | DLLWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 16 | DLDWW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHangzhou Greentown have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Hangzhou Greentown 2-3 and beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 13D 11L from the last 33 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Yunnan Yukun have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Yunnan Yukun 3-3 and lost to Tianjin Teda 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 11L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHangzhou Greentown
No reported absences
Yunnan Yukun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hangzhou Greentown have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Yunnan Yukun 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hangzhou Greentown have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hangzhou Greentown player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
