Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win against Shanghai Shenhua, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shandong currently sits in third place in the league, having amassed 33 points from 23 matches with a record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal-scoring has been consistent, with 42 goals scored this season, which indicates a solid offensive unit. Recent form shows they have achieved three wins in their last five matches, which underscores their competitive edge heading into this fixture. In contrast, Shanghai Shenhua occupies the 10th position with 25 points from 22 matches, recording 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal difference stands at +7, suggesting they have had a relatively strong attack compared to their defense. However, their form has been inconsistent, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. This variability could hinder their chances against a more stable Shandong side. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Shandong Luneng, with the projected score reflecting their stronger league standing and recent performance. A key market percentage suggests a 55% likelihood of Shandong winning. However, one caveat is that if Shanghai Shenhua can leverage their home advantage and find their scoring form, they could disrupt Shandong’s plans. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.2% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua win as the most likely scoreline at 11.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 4.33 | 3.62 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 1.30 | 3.14 | |
| 1.73 | 4.50 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 1.80 | 4.15 | 3.80 | 1.30 | 3.40 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.30 | 3.10 | |
| 1.80 | 4.46 | 3.72 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 1.30 | 3.21 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.65 | 1.31 | 3.15 | 1.32 | 3.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shanghai Shenhua leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Shandong Luneng, Shanghai Shenhua has won 5 times, Shandong Luneng has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with several narrow victories and a few more decisive wins, such as Shanghai's 6-0 triumph. Notably, the results have been relatively competitive, with both teams having periods of dominance. The most recent match saw Shandong Luneng winning 4-1, which highlights their ability to secure strong results, but overall, the record shows no clear dominance by either side.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 48 | LWLDD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 36 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 36 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 35 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Dalian Zhixing | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 33 | DLWDL |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 5 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 18 | DLLWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 16 | DLDWW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShanghai Shenhua have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Henan Jianye 4-1 and beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 11L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shandong Luneng have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shandong Luneng 2-0 and beat SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 9L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Shandong Luneng
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Shandong Luneng 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
