Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing
Match Preview
The model favours Dalian Zhixing to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Chongqing Tongliang Long. Dalian currently sits in third place in the league standings with 32 points from 21 matches, showcasing a solid season overall. Their record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses indicates a competitive edge, particularly in goal-scoring, with 32 goals for, despite conceding 36. Chongqing Tongliang Long, on the other hand, is positioned seventh with 29 points from 22 matches. Their form has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches, resulting in a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. This dip in form has seen them struggle to find the back of the net, managing only 25 goals throughout the season while allowing 27. The model gives Dalian Zhixing a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is Chongqing's potential to exploit any defensive lapses, especially given Dalian's higher number of goals conceded. For a detailed breakdown of how we arrived at this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Chongqing Tongliang Long manage games at home, conceding just 1.06 goals per match. Dalian Zhixing score 1.30 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Chongqing Tongliang Long are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.25 | 2.84 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 2.18 | 3.34 | 3.12 | 1.88 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.24 | 3.52 | 3.23 | 1.92 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.23 | 2.94 | 2.77 | 1.96 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.24 | 3.44 | 3.22 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 2.28 | 3.45 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.66 | 2.05 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 1.93 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 1.88 | 1.82 | 1.74 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.86 | 1.82 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Dalian Zhixing stands at 2 wins for each side, with 1 draw in their last 5 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mixture of tight contests and one-sided results, with two matches ending in 1-0 victories, highlighting the potential for low-scoring affairs. Chongqing Tongliang Long's 3-0 win in 2024 was the most decisive outcome, while the recent 2-2 draw suggests a competitive edge. Notably, Dalian Zhixing's last win was in May 2026, indicating a potential struggle in recent matchups.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 48 | LWLDD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 36 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 36 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 35 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Dalian Zhixing | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 33 | DLWDL |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 | LWWWL |
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 30 | DLLLD |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 18 | DLLWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 16 | DLDWW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChongqing Tongliang Long have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 and beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 10D 10L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Dalian Zhixing have won 2 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Dalian Zhixing 1-1 and lost to Yunnan Yukun 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 15L from the last 33 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChongqing Tongliang Long5-4-1Confirmed
Dalian Zhixing4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersChongqing Tongliang Long
No reported absences
Dalian Zhixing
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chongqing Tongliang Long have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Dalian Zhixing 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chongqing Tongliang Long have generated 0.67 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 2.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chongqing Tongliang Long player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
