Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Dalian Zhixing to win this match against Beijing Guoan, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Dalian Zhixing currently sits in 4th place in the league, having amassed 32 points from 21 matches with a record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses. Their attacking form has been decent, scoring 32 goals, although they have conceded 36, resulting in a negative goal difference of -4. They have shown some resilience recently, securing two wins in their last five matches. Beijing Guoan, positioned 7th in the league with 29 points from the same number of matches, has had a strong run lately, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. They have a better defensive record than Dalian Zhixing, having conceded only 27 goals while scoring 38. This gives them a positive goal difference of 11, reflecting a solid season overall. However, they may struggle to maintain this form against a higher-ranked opponent. According to the model, Dalian Zhixing has a win probability of approximately 45%, with a projected score of 2-1. One important caveat to consider is that if Beijing Guoan manages to capitalise on any defensive lapses from Dalian Zhixing, they could easily turn the match in their favour. The full methodology of this prediction, which utilises expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Head to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Beijing Guoan leads 3-0)In the last four matches between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan, Dalian Zhixing has not secured a win, with the record standing at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 wins for Beijing Guoan. The scorelines indicate a one-sided affair, with Beijing Guoan achieving two heavy victories (3-0 and 4-2) alongside a 2-0 win, while Dalian's only point came from a 1-1 draw in the FA Cup. This suggests that Dalian Zhixing has struggled to compete, particularly in league matches, where their last victory over Beijing Guoan dates back beyond this sample.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 48 | LWLDD |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 36 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 36 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 35 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Dalian Zhixing | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 33 | DLWDL |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 | LWWWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 18 | DLLWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 16 | DLDWW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDalian Zhixing have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Dalian Zhixing 1-0 and beat Dalian Zhixing 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 15L from the last 33 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 9 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 and beat Tianjin Teda 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 8L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDalian Zhixing
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
