Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik
Match Preview
The model favours Vikingur Reykjavik to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vikingur has shown stronger form recently, with three wins in their last five matches, including a solid performance characterized by resilience and adaptability. Their recent results indicate a team that is finding its rhythm, which could be crucial in a knockout scenario like this. On the other hand, Hapoel Beer Sheva has struggled, managing only one win in their last five matches, accompanied by three losses. This inconsistent form may undermine their confidence going into this match. The team's ability to bounce back from disappointing results will be key if they hope to challenge Vikingur. The model outputs a win probability of approximately 60% in favour of Vikingur Reykjavik, while Hapoel Beer Sheva sits at around 25%. One potential caveat for Vikingur is the pressure of the knockout stage, which can sometimes lead to unexpected performance dips. For a detailed breakdown of how these predictions were reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Hapoel Beer Sheva have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheets, in line with their 17% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Hapoel Beer Sheva are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.65 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.63 | 4.05 | 4.75 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 2.13 | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.62 | 4.02 | 4.66 | 1.61 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 1.56 | 3.60 | 4.45 | 1.64 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.66 | 4.12 | 4.83 | 1.63 | 2.28 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 1.56 | 3.95 | 5.30 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 4.70 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.70 | 1.65 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.80 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Vikingur Reykjavik stands at 0 wins for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Vikingur Reykjavik. Their only encounter ended in a goalless draw, indicating a tightly contested match with neither side able to find the back of the net. This lack of scoring suggests that both teams may struggle offensively against each other, and with only one match played, there is limited historical context to draw further conclusions.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHapoel Beer Sheva have won 2 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vikingur Reykjavik 2-0 and lost to Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 5L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vikingur Reykjavik have won 8 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vikingur Reykjavik 2-0 and lost to Thor Akureyri 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 1D 3L from the last 19 games (79% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHapoel Beer Sheva4-3-3Confirmed
Vikingur Reykjavik4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHapoel Beer Sheva
No reported absences
Vikingur Reykjavik
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Bandic has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Bandic to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Hapoel Beer Sheva have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Vikingur Reykjavik 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hapoel Beer Sheva have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. They put 7.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hapoel Beer Sheva player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
