Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone Prediction, Tips & Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone
Match Preview
The model favours Heart Of Midlothian to win this match against St Johnstone, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place in the league, Hearts have shown an attacking edge with five goals scored in their two matches, contributing to a positive goal difference of three. However, they will need to improve on their recent form, having only secured one win in their last five matches. St Johnstone, positioned sixth, have matched Hearts with three points from their two games, having scored four goals but also conceded four. Their form shows they have been more inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern as they look to build momentum in the early stages of the season. The model gives Heart Of Midlothian a win probability of 55%, reflecting a slight edge over St Johnstone. While the projected scoreline suggests a competitive match, the key market percentage indicates that Hearts are favoured to win. One caveat is that if Hearts fail to convert their chances, they could find themselves vulnerable to a counter-attacking St Johnstone side. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Heart Of Midlothian have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian win as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Heart Of Midlothian clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Heart Of Midlothian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.90 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.45 | 1.81 | 1.97 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.64 | 3.95 | 4.93 | 1.80 | 1.98 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 4.05 | 5.10 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heart Of Midlothian leads 10-0)Heart Of Midlothian has a dominant head-to-head record against ST Johnstone, winning all 10 of their last encounters without any draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close matches, such as the 2-1 results, and more decisive victories like the 3-0 win. This suggests that while ST Johnstone has occasionally put up a fight, they have consistently struggled to secure points. The absence of draws and the fact that ST Johnstone has not won against Heart Of Midlothian in this timeframe highlights a clear advantage for the latter.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | WL |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHeart Of Midlothian have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Rapid Vienna 2-2 and beat Inverness CT 6-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 9L from the last 31 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Johnstone have won 7 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to ST Johnstone 1-0 and lost to Inverness CT 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 2L from the last 14 games (79% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHeart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
ST Johnstone
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Heart Of Midlothian average 1.6 goals per match at home; ST Johnstone 2.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Heart Of Midlothian have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heart Of Midlothian player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
