ST Mirren vs Motherwell Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Mirren vs Motherwell
Match Preview
The model favours ST Mirren to win against Motherwell, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. ST Mirren currently sits in second place in the league, having won both of their opening matches this season without conceding a goal. Their strong goal difference of +3 highlights their defensive solidity, making them a tough opponent for any team. Motherwell, on the other hand, is in third place with one win and one draw from their two matches. They have scored two goals while conceding only one, reflecting a decent start to the season but not quite as dominant as their upcoming opponents. While they have shown some promise, their recent form shows two draws in their last five matches, which may hinder their momentum heading into this fixture. The model gives ST Mirren a win probability of approximately 65%, indicating a strong likelihood of success. However, Motherwell's ability to secure a draw in their previous matches suggests they could pose a challenge. If ST Mirren's defence falters or if Motherwell capitalises on set pieces, the outcome could shift. For a detailed explanation of the methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilising an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
ST Mirren have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. ST Mirren are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Mirren vs Motherwell| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.57 | 3.19 | 2.89 | 1.98 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 1.94 | 1.81 | 1.74 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.57 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Motherwell leads 4-2)Motherwell hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 meetings with 4 draws and 2 ST Mirren wins. The record points to a tie Motherwell have controlled for years, though the draws show ST Mirren have at times kept it tight.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Dundee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 3 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 5 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | WL |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | LLD |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Mirren have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat ST Mirren 1-0 and lost to ST Mirren 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 12L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Motherwell have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Stenhousemuir 1-0 and drew with HJK Helsinki 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 11L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Mirren
No reported absences
Motherwell
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Mirren have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Motherwell 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Mirren have generated 0.45 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Mirren player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
