Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Tips & Odds
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
Match Preview
The model favours Heerenveen to win against PEC Zwolle, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Heerenveen enters the new season with a solid foundation from their recent performances, having secured three wins in their last five matches. While they have not played any league games yet this season, their form suggests a positive momentum that could carry over into this fixture. On the other hand, PEC Zwolle has struggled recently, managing only one win in their last five matches and suffering four losses. This poor form could weigh heavily on their confidence as they begin the season, despite starting at a higher position in the standings. The lack of recent success may hinder their ability to perform well right out of the gate. According to the model, Heerenveen has a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that both teams are entering the season without any competitive matches this year, which can lead to unpredictability in performance levels. The full method, which utilizes expected goals and actual results over the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has crafted this insight to provide a data-driven perspective on the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Heerenveen have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Heerenveen win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Heerenveen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.61 | 4.33 | 4.55 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 1.54 | 4.45 | 5.05 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.58 | 4.68 | 5.20 | 1.46 | 2.82 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.17 | 4.70 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.25 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.58 | 4.58 | 5.19 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 1.52 | 4.60 | 5.10 | 1.43 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.80 | 1.40 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 4.70 | 5.10 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Superbet | 1.59 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.47 | 2.72 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heerenveen leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle, Heerenveen has won 5 times, drawn 3 times, and PEC Zwolle has secured only 1 win. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Heerenveen to dominate, as evidenced by several heavy victories, including a 4-2 and a 5-2 win. The matches have also featured a few draws, but overall, Heerenveen's ability to score multiple goals has been apparent. PEC Zwolle's lone win came in November 2025, highlighting a significant gap in success against Heerenveen in recent encounters.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | DLWLL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHeerenveen have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Heerenveen 0-2 and beat Heerenveen 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 8L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with PEC Zwolle 2-2 and beat Heerenveen 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 13L from the last 26 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersHeerenveen1
PEC Zwolle5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Martens has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Heerenveen have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; PEC Zwolle 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heerenveen have generated 1.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heerenveen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
