Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction, Tips & Odds
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Match Preview
The model favours Henan Jianye to win against Chongqing Tongliang Long, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Henan Jianye currently sits at 13th in the league standings, having accumulated 23 points from 22 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, with 8 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, reflecting a slightly negative goal difference of -2. Despite a challenging form recently, their ability to score 27 goals indicates potential for attacking play. On the other hand, Chongqing Tongliang Long is positioned 7th with 30 points from 23 matches, showcasing a relatively balanced record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses. However, their form has dipped recently, with only one win in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to secure points in this away fixture, especially considering their goal difference is also -2, highlighting vulnerabilities in their defence. The model gives Henan Jianye a win probability of 55%, while Chongqing Tongliang Long's probability stands at 25%, with a key market percentage suggesting a draw at 20%. One caveat to consider is the potential for Henan Jianye to struggle in maintaining their form, as they have been inconsistent. For a detailed breakdown of how we arrived at this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. Our analysis is powered by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 21% of matches. Chongqing Tongliang Long average 1.1 goals per game.
Henan Jianye manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. Chongqing Tongliang Long score 1.09 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Henan Jianye have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Henan Jianye win as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Henan Jianye clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Henan Jianye are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.57 | 3.92 | 5.35 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.82 | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.61 | 3.90 | 5.38 | 1.90 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 1.52 | 3.37 | 4.48 | 1.86 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.62 | 4.04 | 5.51 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.10 | 1.85 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Henan Jianye leads 1-0)In the last two matches between Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long, Henan Jianye has won 1 match and there has been 1 draw, while Chongqing Tongliang Long has not secured a win. The scorelines indicate that the encounters have been relatively competitive, with one match ending in a 1-1 draw and the other resulting in a narrow 2-1 victory for Henan Jianye. This suggests that while Henan Jianye holds the upper hand historically, the matches have not featured significant goal margins, reflecting a balanced rivalry rather than a lopsided one.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 48 | LWLDD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 36 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 24 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 36 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 36 | WDLWD |
| 5 |  Yunnan Yukun | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 35 | DWWLW |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 | LWWWL |
| 7 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 30 | LDLLL |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 24 | DLDDW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 18 | DLLWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 16 | DLDWW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHenan Jianye have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Henan Jianye 0-0 and drew with Henan Jianye 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 10D 11L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 and lost to Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 11L from the last 35 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHenan Jianye
No reported absences
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Henan Jianye have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Henan Jianye have generated 1.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Henan Jianye player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
