Hibernian vs Falkirk Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hibernian vs Falkirk
Match Preview
The model favours Hibernian to win against Falkirk, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 10th place, Hibernian has experienced a challenging start to the season with two wins, one draw, and four losses from their seven matches. They have scored eight goals while conceding eleven, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Key to their hopes will be improving their offensive output, as they have managed to secure just one win in their last five outings. Falkirk, on the other hand, finds themselves in 11th place with one win, three draws, and three losses. They have netted six goals and allowed nine, also carrying a goal difference of -3. Their form shows some resilience, with two draws in their last five matches. However, they need to convert those draws into wins to climb out of the relegation zone. The model gives Hibernian a win probability of 54.3%, with a projected score of 2-1. There is a 54.5% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54.5% likelihood of both teams scoring. A caveat for Hibernian is their inconsistency; if they cannot find their scoring touch, they risk dropping points against a team like Falkirk, which is still searching for form. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Hibernian have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Hibernian clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Hibernian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hibernian vs Falkirk| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.69 | 3.82 | 4.50 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.71 | 3.82 | 4.46 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Hibernian leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Hibernian and Falkirk shows Hibernian winning 4 matches, drawing 4, and Falkirk winning 2. This indicates a fairly balanced rivalry, with both teams frequently sharing points. The scorelines reveal a mix of results, including a notable 4-1 win for Falkirk, while Hibernian's victories include a 3-0 win. Draws have occurred on four occasions, highlighting the competitive nature of their encounters. The last time Falkirk won was in July 2022, suggesting that Hibernian has had the upper hand in more recent matchups. Overall, the matches tend to be closely contested.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHibernian have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aberdeen 1-1 and lost to Kilmarnock 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 13L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Falkirk have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Falkirk 1-1 and lost to Celtic 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 13L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHibernian
No reported absences
Falkirk
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hibernian have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Falkirk 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hibernian have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hibernian player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
