HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos Prediction, Tips & Odds
HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos
Match Preview
The model favours HNK Hajduk Split to win this match against Pafos, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Hajduk Split has shown strong form recently, winning four of their last five matches. This positive trend is significant as it reflects their ability to perform under pressure, which is crucial in knockout competition like the UEFA Europa League. Their recent success suggests a team gaining confidence and momentum as they approach this fixture. On the other hand, Pafos has had a mixed run, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could pose challenges for them as they face a team in better form. While they have managed to secure some victories, the overall performance indicates that they may struggle against a more resolute opponent like Hajduk Split, especially in an away setting. According to the model, Hajduk Split has a strong win probability in this matchup. However, one caveat to consider is that if Pafos can exploit any defensive vulnerabilities in Hajduk's setup, they could pose a threat. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has provided this insight to help guide your betting decisions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
HNK Hajduk Split manage games at home, conceding just 1.18 goals per match. Pafos score 1.25 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
HNK Hajduk Split have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature HNK Hajduk Split clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. HNK Hajduk Split are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.80 | |
| 2.09 | 3.28 | 3.46 | 2.21 | 1.64 | 1.92 | 1.77 | |
| 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 2.03 | 3.37 | 3.45 | 2.18 | 1.66 | — | — | |
| 2.11 | 2.88 | 3.04 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 2.11 | 3.28 | 3.46 | 2.21 | 1.64 | 1.92 | 1.79 | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.23 | 1.55 | 1.97 | 1.72 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Superbet | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.12 | 1.66 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.14 | 1.61 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (HNK Hajduk Split leads 1-0)HNK Hajduk Split has a head-to-head record of 1 win and 0 draws against Pafos, with the single match resulting in a 2-0 victory for Hajduk. This scoreline indicates a solid win for Hajduk, suggesting they were in control of the game. Since this is the only recorded fixture between the two teams, it is difficult to draw conclusions about any patterns, but Pafos has yet to secure a win against Hajduk. The absence of draws or previous encounters emphasizes Hajduk's current dominance in this matchup.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Istra 1961 2-2 and beat Pafos 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 5L from the last 17 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Pafos have won 2 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 and lost to Slovan Bratislava 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 5L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHNK Hajduk Split
No reported absences
Pafos
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Harvey has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Harvey to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
HNK Hajduk Split have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Pafos 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
HNK Hajduk Split have generated 2.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. HNK Hajduk Split player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
