Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Juventus vs AC Milan
Match Preview
The model favours Juventus to win against AC Milan, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Juventus currently sits in sixth place in the Serie A standings after one match, having secured a solid victory with a goal difference of one. Their early-season form shows promise, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating a strong competitive edge as they look to build momentum. AC Milan, on the other hand, is positioned fourth, also with a win in their opening match. They have scored two goals while conceding one, which reflects a slightly more aggressive offensive strategy. However, their recent form is less impressive, with only two wins and two draws in their last five matches. This could indicate areas of vulnerability that Juventus may exploit. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Juventus, with a projected score of 1-0 and a key market percentage leaning towards a Juventus victory. One caveat is that if AC Milan's attacking players find their rhythm, they could pose a significant threat that might disrupt Juventus' defensive plans. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Juventus manage games at home, conceding just 1.03 goals per match. AC Milan score 1.33 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Juventus have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Juventus clean sheets, in line with their 52% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Juventus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Juventus vs AC Milan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.90 | |
| 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.72 | 2.20 | 1.69 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.27 | 3.12 | 3.75 | 2.27 | 1.70 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.02 | 3.21 | 2.17 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.26 | 3.25 | 3.78 | 2.27 | 1.74 | 1.86 | 1.86 | |
| 2.02 | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
Superbet | 2.12 | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.12 | 1.74 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.09 | 1.64 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AC Milan leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Juventus and AC Milan over the last ten matches shows Juventus winning 2 times, AC Milan winning 3 times, and 5 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a pattern of tight contests, with several matches finishing in 0-0 draws and only two encounters resulting in a win by more than a single goal. The most recent win for Juventus against AC Milan came in October 2023, while AC Milan last achieved a victory over Juventus in May 2023. Overall, the matches have been closely contested, with no dominant side emerging in recent history.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 | AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJuventus have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with AC Milan 1-1 and beat Parma 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 6L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AC Milan have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with AC Milan 1-1 and beat Torino 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 8L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedJuventus4-2-3-1Confirmed
AC Milan3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersJuventus9
AC Milan1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Mariani has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Juventus have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; AC Milan 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Juventus have generated 1.74 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Juventus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
