KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Prediction, Tips & Odds
KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom
Match Preview
The model favours Lillestrom to win against KFUM Oslo, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Lillestrom currently sits in 4th place in the Eliteserien standings, showcasing a solid season overall with 8 wins from 15 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted 22 goals while conceding 18, resulting in a positive goal difference of 4. Despite a few recent setbacks, they remain a strong contender in the league. On the other hand, KFUM Oslo is struggling at 14th place with only 12 points from 14 matches. Their form has been particularly concerning, as they have lost their last five matches without securing a single point. With just 15 goals scored and 25 conceded, their goal difference of -10 reflects ongoing defensive issues, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Lillestrom, with a projected score of 2-0. A key market percentage to consider is Lillestrom's odds of winning, which are likely to be favourable. However, KFUM Oslo could potentially surprise if they manage to turn around their form, making the outcome less certain. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Lillestrom have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lillestrom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 2.40 | |
| 3.14 | 3.52 | 2.13 | 1.65 | 2.19 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.23 | 3.74 | 2.19 | 1.68 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 3.02 | 3.45 | 2.14 | 1.63 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.19 | 1.67 | 2.22 | 1.52 | 2.37 | |
| 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.28 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 1.65 | 2.18 | 1.53 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Lillestrom leads 7-2)In the last nine matches between KFUM Oslo and Lillestrom, Lillestrom has won seven times, while KFUM Oslo has managed two victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, highlighted by Lillestrom's ability to win by margins such as 7-2 and 2-0, suggesting they often secure comfortable victories. KFUM Oslo's two wins include a significant 5-0 in a friendly, but overall, they have struggled against Lillestrom, who has not lost to KFUM Oslo since 2020. This pattern showcases Lillestrom's dominance in this fixture.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 14 | KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKFUM Oslo have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with KFUM Oslo 1-1 and beat KFUM Oslo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 16L from the last 32 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lillestrom have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lillestrom 1-2 and beat Aurskog Finstadbru 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 14L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersKFUM Oslo6
Lillestrom3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Grotta has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
KFUM Oslo have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Lillestrom 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lillestrom have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lillestrom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
