Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Match Preview
The model favours Kilmarnock to win this match against Celtic, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kilmarnock starts the season in a promising position, currently sitting at fifth in the league despite having not yet played a match this season. Their recent form is strong, having secured three wins and two draws in their last five matches, which suggests a solid foundation for the upcoming campaign. Celtic, on the other hand, finds themselves in a challenging position, placed tenth in the standings, albeit with the same number of matches played. Their last five matches show a mix of results, with one win, three draws, and one loss, indicating that they may struggle to regain their top form as the season begins. The team will need to improve their consistency to climb the table. Overall, the model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Kilmarnock, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is that Kilmarnock may offer value in the match winner market. However, a potential caveat is that early-season matches can often be unpredictable, with teams still finding their rhythm. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Celtic have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Celtic win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Celtic are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kilmarnock vs Celtic| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 7.60 | 5.00 | 1.35 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 7.50 | 5.05 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 7.16 | 5.36 | 1.40 | 1.44 | 2.88 | — | — | |
| 6.47 | 4.81 | 1.34 | — | — | — | — | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.38 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 7.46 | 5.05 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 1.41 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 2.63 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 7.70 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 7.00 | 5.30 | 1.38 | 1.45 | 2.77 | 1.66 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 7.50 | 5.25 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Celtic leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Kilmarnock and Celtic, Celtic has won 8 times, Kilmarnock has won once, and there has been 1 draw. This record indicates a strong advantage for Celtic, particularly highlighted by several heavy scorelines, including a 5-1 and a 4-0 victory. Kilmarnock's sole win came in December 2023, suggesting a long-standing challenge in overcoming Celtic, as they have struggled to consistently compete, with only 2 matches finishing with a narrow margin. The overall trend reflects Celtic's dominance in this fixture.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | WL |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKilmarnock have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ayr Utd 3-2 and lost to Celtic 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 10L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Celtic have won 8 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Celtic 0-4 and beat Kilmarnock 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 5D 4L from the last 28 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKilmarnock4-3-1-2Confirmed
Celtic4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersKilmarnock
No reported absences
Celtic
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Lee has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kilmarnock have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Celtic 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celtic have generated 2.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celtic player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
