Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction, Tips & Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow
Match Preview
The model favours Spartak Moscow to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Spartak currently sits in 4th place in the league, showcasing a strong season with 6 wins from their first 9 matches. Their goal difference of +9 highlights their solid defensive performance, having conceded only 7 goals, while scoring 16. This combination of effective attacking and sturdy defending places them among the top teams in the league. Krylia Sovetov, on the other hand, is in 9th position, having managed just 2 wins in their 9 matches so far. Their form has seen them struggle to secure victories, with only 1 win in the last 5 matches, resulting in 4 draws. Their goal difference of -1 indicates that they have been more vulnerable defensively, conceding 14 goals while scoring only 13. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a stronger opponent. The model gives Spartak Moscow a win probability of 54.8%, with a draw at 24.8% and Krylia Sovetov at 20.4%. One potential caveat for Spartak is the possibility of underestimating Krylia's resilience, especially given their recent run of draws. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Spartak Moscow have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Spartak Moscow are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.70 | 4.10 | 1.71 | 1.68 | 2.20 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 4.87 | 4.16 | 1.69 | 1.67 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 4.08 | 3.52 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 4.82 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.74 | 2.28 | 1.64 | 2.15 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Spartak Moscow leads 7-3)In the last ten matches between Krylia Sovetov and Spartak Moscow, Spartak Moscow leads with 7 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 3, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Spartak Moscow to dominate, as they achieved several heavy victories, including a 4-1 and a 5-2 win. Krylia Sovetov's victories were narrower, with their highest margin being a 4-0 win. This suggests that while Krylia Sovetov has found some success, the overall record leans heavily in favor of Spartak Moscow, who have not lost to Krylia Sovetov in their last five encounters.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 24 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 23 | WDWWL |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 22 | DLDDD |
| 6 |  FC Orenburg | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | DWDLD |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 | LDDWD |
| 14 |  Akron | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 | DLWDD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 | WLLDL |
| 16 |  Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 6 | DLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKrylia Sovetov have won 9 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fakel 1-2 and lost to Baltika 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 13D 16L from the last 42 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Spartak Moscow have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rodina Moskva 2-4 and drew with Krylia Sovetov 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 11D 8L from the last 44 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKrylia Sovetov4-2-3-1Confirmed
Spartak Moscow4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersKrylia Sovetov1
Spartak Moscow3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Nikita Novikov has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Nikita Novikov to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Krylia Sovetov have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Spartak Moscow 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Spartak Moscow have generated 1.00 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Spartak Moscow player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
