Lazio vs Genoa Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lazio vs Genoa
Match Preview
The model favours Lazio to win against Genoa, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lazio enters the new season with positive momentum, having won four of their last five matches in the previous campaign. This strong finish has placed them in a solid position to build upon as they look to improve from their mid-table standing last season. Their recent form suggests they have the capability to convert chances effectively, which could be crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, Genoa's recent form has been more mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. While they ended the previous season with some competitive performances, their inconsistency may pose a challenge as they seek to start the new campaign on a high note. With no prior results this season, they will need to quickly find their rhythm to contend with a Lazio side that is likely to be more cohesive and confident. The model output indicates a win probability in favour of Lazio, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that both teams are entering the season without any competitive matches played this term, which could lead to unpredictable performances. The full methodology of our predictions, based on expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has leveraged this data to provide insights into this fixture.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches. Genoa average 1.2 goals per game.
Lazio manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Genoa score 1.17 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.1% probability.
Lazio have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lazio clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lazio are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lazio vs Genoa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.24 | 2.94 | 3.55 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.38 | 2.97 | 3.55 | 2.58 | 1.52 | 2.07 | 1.67 | |
| 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.39 | 3.03 | 3.58 | 2.65 | 1.53 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 2.92 | 3.22 | 2.51 | 1.54 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 2.88 | 3.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.35 | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.43 | 3.04 | 3.64 | 2.66 | 1.56 | 2.07 | 1.69 | |
| 2.23 | 2.88 | 3.65 | 2.45 | 1.52 | 2.02 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 2.92 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.55 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 2.32 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 2.07 | 1.72 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.36 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lazio leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Lazio and Genoa, Lazio has won 8 times, while Genoa has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Lazio often winning comfortably; they have achieved four wins by at least two goals. However, Genoa's two wins, including a notable 4-1 victory in a friendly, suggest they can pose a threat under certain circumstances. The last time Genoa won in a competitive match was in August 2023, indicating a recent struggle against Lazio in official fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 | Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 | Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLazio have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Genoa 1-0 and lost to Mantova 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Genoa have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lazio 1-0 and lost to Bournemouth 10-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 13L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersLazio8
Genoa3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Feliciani has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lazio have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Genoa 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lazio have generated 1.13 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lazio player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
