Lecce vs AS Roma Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lecce vs AS Roma
Match Preview
The model favours Lecce to win this match against AS Roma, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lecce enters the season after a mixed form in their last five matches, securing two wins, one draw, and two losses. While they have not yet played this season, their previous performances suggest a team that can challenge opponents, particularly at home. On the other hand, AS Roma has struggled in their recent outings, managing only one win and two draws in their last five matches. Starting the season in 16th position, they will look to improve their form significantly. The lack of recent victories could put them under pressure as they aim to turn their season around. According to the model's output, Lecce has a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, AS Roma's tendency to bounce back and their potential for improvement cannot be overlooked. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. AS Roma average 2.1 goals per game.
Lecce manage games at home, conceding just 1.29 goals per match. AS Roma score 2.07 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.5% probability.
AS Roma have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 AS Roma win as the most likely scoreline at 18.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AS Roma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lecce vs AS Roma| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 7.20 | 4.10 | 1.45 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.15 | 1.65 | |
| 7.80 | 4.35 | 1.47 | 2.01 | 1.83 | 2.16 | 1.62 | |
| 8.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| 7.63 | 4.39 | 1.48 | 2.05 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 7.34 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 2.03 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.45 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 7.95 | 4.44 | 1.50 | 2.07 | 1.88 | 2.16 | 1.63 | |
| 7.50 | 4.10 | 1.43 | 2.02 | 1.76 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
Betano | 7.70 | 4.45 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
Superbet | 7.30 | 4.45 | 1.46 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 2.22 | 1.63 |
BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AS Roma leads 8-0)In the last 10 matches between Lecce and AS Roma, AS Roma has won 8 times, with 2 draws and Lecce failing to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a largely one-sided affair, with AS Roma achieving significant victories such as 4-0 and 4-1, while Lecce's draws were low-scoring at 0-0 and 1-1. Lecce has not won against AS Roma in this stretch, reflecting a challenging historical matchup for them. Overall, Lecce has struggled to find the net, with their last win in this fixture dating back further than the provided data.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 12 | Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLecce have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to AS Roma 0-4 and beat SS Monopoli 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 14L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
AS Roma have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lecce 0-4 and drew with Borussia Dortmund 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 7L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLecce3-5-2Confirmed
AS Roma3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersLecce2
AS Roma3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Chiffi has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lecce have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; AS Roma 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AS Roma have generated 2.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AS Roma player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
