Mārupe vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mārupe vs JFK Ventspils
Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned sixth in the league, Mārupe has demonstrated solid form this season with five wins from nine matches, yielding a positive goal difference of nine. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 19 goals while conceding only 10, showcasing their defensive stability alongside their offensive capabilities. In contrast, JFK Ventspils is struggling at 14th place, having played eight matches without a victory, recording three draws and five losses. They have managed only nine goals while conceding 16, resulting in a goal difference of minus seven. This lack of offensive output and defensive frailties make it challenging for them to compete effectively in the league. The model indicates a high probability of a Mārupe victory, with a projected score of 2-0, reflecting their superior form and league position. One potential caveat is that if JFK Ventspils can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Mārupe, they may find a way to score. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The SureTipsPro Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Mārupe have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Mārupe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mārupe vs JFK Ventspils| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 1.55 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 1.68 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 1.55 | 2.17 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
| 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.78 | 3.60 | 1.61 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.14 | 3.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.40 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.65 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 1.55 | 2.17 | 1.55 | 2.24 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.07 | — | — |
Superbet | 1.74 | 3.85 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.17 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 2 |  Leevon / PPK | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Valmiera / BSS | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 15 | 23 | WDLDW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | DWWLD |
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 | LLWWW |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 | WLLDL |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 4 | LWLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMārupe have won 4 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to JFK Ventspils 1-2 and lost to Rīgas FS II 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 2D 11L from the last 21 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JFK Ventspils have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 1-2 and beat Upesciema Warriors 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 6D 9L from the last 20 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMārupe
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mārupe average 1.5 goals per match at home; JFK Ventspils 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Mārupe have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 38% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Mārupe player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.