Rīgas FS II vs Riga FC II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rīgas FS II vs Riga FC II
Match Preview
The model favours Rīgas FS II to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 10th in the league, Rīgas FS II has had a mixed season with two wins, two draws, and six losses. Their goal difference of -9 reflects some defensive struggles, but they have shown signs of improvement recently, securing two wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Riga FC II sits just above them in 9th place with a record of three wins, one draw, and six losses. They have scored slightly more goals than Rīgas FS II, but their recent form has been concerning, with four consecutive losses following a single win. This inconsistency could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Rīgas FS II, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if Riga FC II can find their scoring touch and break their losing streak, they could pose a challenge. The full methodology used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Rīgas FS II have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Rīgas FS II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rīgas FS II vs Riga FC II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.25 | 3.65 | 2.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.31 | 3.64 | 2.47 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.31 | 3.64 | 2.47 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.40 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.65 | 2.50 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Riga FC II leads 4-2)In their last eight encounters, Rīgas FS II has won 2 matches, drawn 2, and lost 4 to Riga FC II. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and lopsided results, with several matches featuring heavy defeats; notably, Riga FC II's 6-0 victory in October 2022 and 4-0 win in May 2023. Overall, the matches have shown a tendency towards tighter contests, as seen in the two draws and Rīgas FS II's 3-0 win. The last time Rīgas FS II triumphed over Riga FC II was in August 2025, suggesting a challenging period for them against this opponent.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 31 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 29 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 28 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLLLW |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 | WWWLL |
| 10 | Rīgas FS II | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | DLWWL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 | DLWLL |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRīgas FS II have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Super Nova 2 1-1 and lost to Riga FC II 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 6D 10L from the last 22 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Riga FC II have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rīgas FS II 1-3 and lost to Rēzekne FA 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 10L from the last 22 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRīgas FS II
No reported absences
Riga FC II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Rīgas FS II average 1.6 goals per match at home; Riga FC II 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Rīgas FS II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 27% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. Rīgas FS II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.